\u3000\u3000 Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756)
It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 238% to 258% year-on-year in 2021, maintaining the “buy” rating
On January 18, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 872 million yuan to 924 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 238% to 258%, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company will reach 753 million yuan to 789 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 316% to 336%. Considering the sharp rise of lithium price in 2021q4, we raised the profit forecast for 2021-2023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-2023 will be 921 (+ 0.46), 37.95 (+ 12.53), 4.469 (+ 1.670) billion yuan respectively, and EPS will be 227 (+ 0.11), 9.35 (+ 3.09) and 11.01 (+ 4.11) yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponding to PE in 2021-2023 will be 55.3, 13.4 and 11.4 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Lithium salt prices continued to strengthen, helping the company maintain high performance growth
According to the company’s announcement, the pre increase of the company’s performance in 2021 is mainly due to the good production and marketing of lithium salt products and the significant improvement of the profitability of lithium battery business. According to SMM data, the average tax price of battery grade lithium carbonate reached 121300 yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 176% over 2020. Quarterly, the average tax price of 2021q1-q4 battery grade lithium carbonate increased quarter by quarter, reaching 7.45, 8.88, 10.98 and 20.98 million yuan respectively. Especially since December 2021, the price of lithium salt has further increased rapidly. As of mid January, the tax included price of battery grade lithium carbonate has exceeded 330000 yuan / ton. In the future, the company’s lithium salt business is expected to continue to benefit fully.
Lithium carbonate phase II project is ready to go, and the company is about to enter the performance concentrated release period
Looking forward to the future, it is difficult to ease the tight global lithium supply in the short term. With the accelerated release of downstream demand represented by new energy vehicles, lithium prices are expected to remain high. At the same time, the company’s phase II project with an annual output of 20000 tons of battery grade lithium carbonate (divided into two lines and 10000 tons each) is progressing smoothly. It is expected to be put into operation in March and June 2022 respectively, and the supporting beneficiation project with an annual output of 1.8 million tons will also be put into operation in June 2022. According to the company’s announcement, in order to deal with the possible mismatch of mining, beneficiation and metallurgy in the short term in the phase II project, the company has reserved nearly 50000 tons of lithium mica concentrate in advance. In addition, the company’s ultra wide temperature range and ultra long life battery project is now in the stage of mass sample delivery, and is expected to be put into operation in H1 2022, which will contribute another performance increment to the company at that time.
Risk tip: the project commissioning process is not as expected, and the downstream demand has fallen sharply, etc.
