\u3000\u3000 Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) (688099)
Event: on January 17, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021: it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of RMB 4.74-4.79 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73.10% - 74.93%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 780-840 million, with a year-on-year increase of 579.24% - 631.49%; It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non parent company is 670-730 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 688.18% - 758.76%.
Q4 achieved a record year-on-year performance, and the annual performance exceeded expectations. The company focuses on the R & D and design of multimedia intelligent terminal application processor chips, mainly covering five business segments: smart set-top box SOC chip, smart TV SOC chip, AI audio and video system terminal SOC chip, WiFi and Bluetooth chip, and automotive electronics chip. According to the company's announcement, benefiting from the advantages of the company's advanced products, the strong demand of the consumer electronics industry and the company's strategic layout, the company's operating revenue continued to increase, and exceeded 4.7 billion yuan in 2021 and 1.5 billion yuan in a single quarter in the fourth quarter of 2021. Q4's estimated operating revenue is RMB 1.517-1.557 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 54.88% - 60.02%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 278-338 million, a year-on-year increase of 117.19% - 164.06%; It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non parent company is 238-298 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 112.5% - 166.07%.
Traditional businesses continue to penetrate high, medium and low-end applications, and are expected to grow steadily in the future. The company's mainstream intelligent set-top box chip IPTV and Ott technology took the lead. In December, the company's 6nm test chip began to be streamed. At present, IPTV has been applied to many intelligent set-top box manufacturers such as Zte Corporation(000063) and Skyworth, and relevant terminal products have been applied to the three major telecom operators. Ott has cooperated with Xiaomi, Alibaba and Baidu. In 2021, Chinese operators successively carried out centralized bidding for set-top box business. The set-top box industry is in a two wheel drive mode of IP replacement of newly installed and existing products. According to growth insights, the global scale of Android TV boxes is expected to reach US $15.63 billion in 2026. The company's AI audio and video chips cover intelligent speaker series, intelligent image series and other products. In 2021, the shipment increased rapidly, maintaining high-intensity R & D investment and a stable broad customer base. According to statista's prediction, the global shipment of intelligent speakers is expected to reach 333 million units in 2024. According to strategic analytics data, the company's share of global AI audio and video chip manufacturers in 2020 is the fourth, And the global smart video market will reach nearly $13 billion in 2023. According to the company's disclosure, as the company continues to explore overseas market space, the business of intelligent set-top box chip and AI audio and video chip is expected to continue to grow.
Emerging business WiFi chips and vehicle chips are gradually mass produced, becoming the company's innovative growth point. Following the first mass production of WiFi chips in the third quarter of 2020, the company launched a new generation product in August 2021 - dual band high-speed data transmission wi-fi5 + BT5 supporting high-throughput video transmission 2 single chip. According to the record of investor relations activities of the company from October to November, after continuous certification by major customers, the performance of the product has been continuously improved and has been commercialized on a large scale. According to the prediction of markets and markets, the global Wi Fi chip market will reach US $19.72 billion in 2022, with broad market space. The company's on-board chips are mainly used in on-board information and entertainment systems, and will be introduced to overseas customers in 2020. The intelligent cabin chips will continue to be laid out and developed, which is expected to be in large quantities with the trend of automobile intellectualization.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.773 billion yuan, 6.331 billion yuan and 7.812 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 797 million yuan, 953 million yuan and 1.207 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 194 yuan, 232 yuan and 294 yuan respectively, corresponding to 62 times, 52 times and 41 times of PE respectively, maintaining the "Buy-A" investment rating.
Risk tips: downstream demand attenuation risk, market competition risk and new product R & D risk.
