\u3000\u3000 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (000799)
Events
On the evening of January 18, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021: 1) it is estimated that the revenue in 2021 will be 3.4 billion yuan, an increase of 86% at the same time; 2) It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be RMB 880 million-950 million, an increase of 79% – 93% at the same time; Deduct non RMB 873 million to RMB 943 million, an increase of 98.5% – 114% at the same time.
Key investment points
It is expected to grow steadily in the fourth quarter and end smoothly in 2021
According to the performance express, we expect the revenue of 2021q4 to be 760 million yuan, an increase of 8.7% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 160 million yuan – 230 million yuan, an increase of 0% to 43% at the same time. The median net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 915 million yuan, an increase of 86% at the same time; The median net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 195 million yuan, an increase of 21% at the same time.
According to the performance forecast, we believe that the performance is in line with expectations, and the company will end smoothly in 2021.
Strengthen the base market and deepen the nationalization
The company adheres to the strategy of “strengthening the base, breaking through the highland and deep nationalization”; Among them, the base market focuses on depth, scale and dynamic marketing, and the highland market focuses on brand, value, banner and guidance. Among them, Hunan, Henan, Hebei and Shandong are the base market, and Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are the highland market.
The direction of deep nationalization is to gradually turn the outer market and the middle non key market into a base market, gradually turn the base market into a large-scale market, and gradually turn the highland market into a base market.
Internal parameters become the power engine, and the medium-term goal is imminent
After several years of operation and operation, the company has successfully gone out of the province, and the investment promotion layout outside the province continues. At present, the company’s advantageous regions are mainly in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and Guangdong, and other regions need time to cultivate. East China is expected to become the company’s next granary. The company will take scale as an important assessment index in the next 3-5 years, in which the internal reference will play the role of power engine, and will go all out to sprint the short-term goal of 3 billion, medium-term goal of 5 billion and long-term goal of 10 billion, and the medium-term goal will be achieved soon. We expect the future product structure of the company to be internal reference: drunkard series: Xiangquan = 4:5:1.
At present, the company’s management is stable, the company is the only liquor enterprise in COFCO Baijiu, and COFCO pays more attention to the company than before. Mr. Zheng Yi, vice general manager of COFCO liquor in the early stage, served as the vice chairman, general manager and chief financial officer of the company, which is expected to promote the progress of equity incentive of the company.
Profit forecast
In the past five years since COFCO took over, the company has focused on the brand side (emphasizing the supreme product · cultural drunkard, and the positioning of the three brands is clear), the product side (the proportion of secondary high-end and above continues to increase, focusing on building three strategic products) The price side (combing the product price system and comprehensively introducing the price control mode) and the channel side (internal equity dealer mode and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) clarifying the division of labor of manufacturers) will be reshaped to expand production capacity and ensure quality. The 14th five year plan company will spare no effort to sprint for the goals of 3 billion in the short term, 5 billion in the medium term and 10 billion in the long term. According to the performance forecast, we slightly adjusted the EPS from 2021 to 2023 to 2.82/4.62/6.35 yuan respectively (the previous values were 2.98/4.61/6.39 yuan respectively), and the corresponding PE of the current stock price was 66 / 40 / 29 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, the epidemic drag on consumption, the growth of internal participation is less than expected, and the expansion outside the province is less than expected.
