\u3000\u3000 Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) (002120)
Key investment points
In December, the unit price increased by 0.10 yuan year-on-year, with a slight decrease in the ring ratio, which is a normal adjustment after the peak season
The unit price of Yunda’s December ticket was 2.35 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.10 yuan and a month on month decrease of 0.03 yuan. We judge that the month on month adjustment is mainly the adjustment of the temporary price increase of goods sold during the double 11, and the price policy of the headquarters has not changed. In addition, in view of the flat trough of e-commerce consumption in the slack and peak seasons, it is expected that the growth rate of temporary cost investment of express enterprises is lower than that in previous years, so the single ticket profit is expected to rebound significantly. Looking forward to the follow-up, the probability of express price policy remains strong during the non closing period of the Spring Festival. It is suggested to pay attention to the end price trend after the festival.
In December, the single volume increased by 22% year-on-year, and the share dividend may appear
From the perspective of single quantity, Yunda’s single quantity in December was 1.836 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 22.2%. Under the trend of flat trough in the light and peak season of e-commerce consumption, it can still maintain a year-on-year growth rate of more than 20%, which is considerable compared with the excess growth of the industry (the year-on-year growth rate of industrial single quantity in December was 10.7%, Yuantong 6.2% and Shentong 19.6%). From the perspective of share, Yunda accounted for 16.6% of the market in December, with a month on month increase of 1.30pts and a year-on-year increase of 1.26pts. 2021, Kwai Chung has a total of 18 billion 402 million business units, which has increased by 30.1% over the same period. The following tiktok and other live goods platforms have risen to supplement the important upstream business increments. The downward trend of the value of the single parcel delivery will drive the industry to maintain relatively high volume of packages, and rhyme will hopefully get an extra share from the industry consolidation events.
Three levels and two stages of value restoration immediately enter the essential stage of profit restoration
For the value restoration after the vicious price war, we believe that we should distinguish three levels: 1) policy control, 2) price return, and 3) profit restoration. In the second and third quarters of this year, with the introduction of policies, the price side gradually returned to a benign trend. After the policy and price repair, it is about to enter the most essential level of value repair, that is, the profit repair level. The corresponding stock price performance has entered the core stage, and is expected to usher in the second wave of “main rising wave”. We expect that the overall profit inflection point of Yunda will be upward in Q4 and next year, and the single piece profit repair will be superimposed with scale growth in 2022, and the performance may be highly flexible.
Profit forecast and valuation
We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.499 billion yuan, 2.744 billion yuan and 4.039 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.7%, + 83.1% and + 47.2% respectively, corresponding to 42 times, 23 times and 16 times of PE respectively. Considering the leading premium, single volume scale and single piece profit, we are still optimistic about the second largest express enterprise in the industry and A-share e-commerce express leader Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) . The company’s value repair space is determined and the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk warning: loose policy control; Deterioration of express price war; The growth of physical online shopping fell.
