\u3000\u3000 Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) (002049)
Event: 1) the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 (RMB 1.900 ~ 2.100 billion, year-on-year + 136% ~ 160%), deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company (RMB 1.700 ~ 1.900 billion, year-on-year + 144% ~ 173%). In a single quarter, 2021q4 company realized net profit attributable to parent company (443 ~ 643 million yuan, year-on-year + 263% ~ 427%, month on month – 24% ~ + 10%), deducting net profit not attributable to parent company (341 ~ 541 million yuan, year-on-year + 377% ~ 656%, month on month – 39% ~ – 3%). 2) According to the company’s announcement, Ziguang group has received the civil ruling of Beijing No. 1 Intermediate People’s court, which ruled to approve the reorganization plan of the substantive merger and reorganization case of seven enterprises such as Ziguang group, and terminate the reorganization procedures of seven enterprises such as Ziguang group.
On the one hand, in the case that China microelectronics contributed to the main performance of listed companies, the performance of 2021q4 listed companies increased significantly year-on-year, reflecting the high prospect of special integrated circuits. As the core card enterprise of China’s special chips, the performance of China microelectronics also further verified the high prospect of the military industry; In addition, the same core micro performance of intelligent security chips has increased significantly, and Ziguang Tongchuang, which is mainly engaged in general FPGA, has turned losses into profits. On the other hand, the reorganization process of Ziguang Group continues to advance. At present, it has been approved by the court. The entry of state-owned capital in the future will be conducive to the stable development of Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) in the future.
1. China microelectronics: the leader of domestic special chips, which is the core card enterprise of high growth segment track of special equipment.
1) rapid growth of special chip industry: China’s special equipment has entered the period of large-scale construction, and the value of equipment informatization has been continuously improved due to the upgrading of mechanization to informatization. In addition, with the localization of special chips, we expect that the scale of China’s special digital chip industry will exceed 40% in the next five years.
2) high barriers: special chips have strict market access barriers and a development cycle of at least 5-7 years. Therefore, China’s Microelectronic special chips have a high market share in aviation, communication and other sub circuits, and will usher in high growth with high certainty in the future.
3) performance elasticity: as an IC design enterprise, it has high performance elasticity under the effect of scale. From 2017 to 2020, the compound growth rate of microelectronics revenue was 48.24%, and the compound growth rate of net profit was 63.48%. It is one of the enterprises with the strongest growth power in the special equipment sector.
4) product expansion: high R & D investment drives product line expansion (such as SOPC) and benefits from information construction for a long time.
2. Same core micro: the vanguard of national governance digitization, the industrial ecological scale continues to expand, and an increasingly complete brand matrix including safety chip, power management chip, vehicle control chip, NFC chip and intelligent identification chip is formed.
1) based on the present: the same core micro has become one of the main security chip suppliers in finance, communication, electronic certificate and other industries. With the withdrawal of overseas competitors, SIM card products ushered in a performance reversal: in 2021h1, Tongxin micro realized a revenue of 639 million yuan (year-on-year + 29.22%), and a net profit of 38 million yuan (year-on-year + 238.11%).
2) looking forward to the future: many fields of digital national governance (Internet of things, 5g, cloud computing, big data, vehicle control, payment, etc.) are being laid out, or will become the vanguard of digital national governance.
Placement of high-end chips and on-board controller chips in convertible bond raised investment projects: high-end security chip projects meet the growing demand for security chips in emerging markets such as Internet of things, 5g, cloud computing and big data; The on-board controller chip project aims to realize the independent control of on-board controller chip.
Payment field: the nfc-sim card payment method laid out by the same core micro has a broad market space. We estimate that the annual market space of NFC chip is about 3 billion yuan.
3. Ziguang Tongchuang: a joint-stock subsidiary and a leading FPGA enterprise in China. According to elecfans data, in 2018, China’s general FPGA market scale was about 10 billion yuan, but it was mainly supplied by overseas enterprises, and the market share of Chinese manufacturers was only 3%. As the leader of general-purpose FPGA in China, Ziguang Tongchuang has achieved technological breakthrough and mass supply in communication and other fields. In 2021, it has made important progress in the fields of video image processing, industrial control and consumer market. According to the company’s performance, it has realized profit in 2021. With its leading position in China, we think its value can not be ignored.
Investment suggestion: the future development of the company mainly comes from the high-speed growth of special chips of microelectronics in China, the strategy of one core micro in the field of national governance digitization, and Ziguang Tongchuang. It is a leading enterprise of general FPGA in China. Based on the performance forecast of the company in 2021, we raised the profit forecast again. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.981 billion, 2.965 billion and 4.087 billion respectively, with corresponding valuations of 68x, 45x and 33x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: due to the debt problem of the group, the application expansion of high-profile special equipment and intelligent security chip is less than expected.
