\u3000\u3000 Anhui Anli Material Technology Co.Ltd(300218) (300218)
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected to achieve a revenue of about 2.04 billion yuan during the period, with a year-on-year increase of about 32%, reaching a record high. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 130-138 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 157.65% - 173.51%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 118-128 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 232% - 260%. Among them, Q4 is expected to achieve a revenue of about 554 million yuan in a single quarter, with a corresponding growth rate of 11.12%. The net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter is 3137-39.37 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of - 6.1% ~ + 17.84%. The net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter is 24.96-34.96 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 1% - 41.5%.
Large customers continue to increase in volume, and the short-term volume reduction does not change the long-term trend. Although some customers are affected by shipping and epidemic situations outside China, the sales volume of H2 is expected to decline year-on-year, the sales volume of main leather products in the whole year is + 12% year-on-year under the continuous large volume of new major customers. In addition, the company continued to develop new customers during the period (signed with leading customers in downstream fields such as europay, Google, Byd Company Limited(002594) and Nike in 2021) to ensure the long-term growth of the company.
Accelerate the upgrading of product structure and improve profitability. With the large number of large customers with high gross profit margin (according to the company's announcement, the original gross profit margin is about 20%, and most of the new customers are 30% - 50%), the proportion of the company's high value-added products continues to increase, and the sales unit price increases month on month (the unit price in the first three quarters / whole year of 2021 + 12.57% / 15% respectively), driving the improvement of profitability. It is expected that the net interest rate after deducting non-profit in Q4 will be 4.5 ~ 6.3%, and the median value will increase month on month compared with Q3. At the same time, the company continuously increased its R & D investment (the annual R & D cost was about 128 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 43 million yuan; the R & D cost rate increased by 0.8pcts to 6.26%), providing guarantee for the continuous improvement of the competitiveness of subsequent companies.
The trend of high-end industry and domestic substitution is prominent, and the company has ushered in a breakthrough in ten years of deep cultivation. From the development trend of the industry, PU leather is gradually replacing PVC leather under the promotion of environmental protection policies and the strengthening of ideas. Among them, healthy, green and eco-friendly waterborne / solvent-free PU leather has become the general trend of future industry development and has rapidly penetrated into high-end applications such as downstream international head sports and leisure brands, high-end sofa home, automobile interior decoration and so on. In the past, the company continued to invest heavily in R & D, and laid out new products, waterborne / solvent-free leather and reserve key customers. Since the second half of 2019, international key customers have entered a continuous breakthrough period. Considering that the company still has a large number of reserve customers to be released, it is expected to usher in a golden period of development.
Investment suggestion: the company is a global leader in ecological functional PU leather. Based on research and development, the company is competing for the foreign-funded high-end PU leather market and stepping into the stage of large-scale production of key customers. With high gross profit margin, large number of customers and superimposed scale effect, the company has entered the development channel of high growth and high quality. In the short term, considering that Q3's profitability is under pressure due to the epidemic in Vietnam, the rise in the price of raw materials, shipping and other factors, we expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 2023 will be RMB 283 million (originally RMB 221 / 304 million), with a year-on-year increase of 50% / 41%, and the corresponding valuations will be 20 / 14 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: raw materials fluctuate greatly; Risk of sharp rise in natural gas prices in winter; The epidemic situation in Southeast Asia affects the production progress of Vietnam; The demand of downstream customers decreased. The public data used in the research report may have the risk of information lag or untimely update.
