\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) (688202)
Event overview
The company announced the performance forecast of 2021 annual report: it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 278 ~ 291 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 115% ~ 125%; The net profit deducted from non profits was RMB 265 ~ 278 million, with a year-on-year increase of 115% ~ 125%.
Analysis and judgment:
The performance continued to grow at a high speed, and the newly signed orders in the whole year increased by about 88% year-on-year
In 2021, the company's operating revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company increased by about 78% and 115% ~ 125% respectively year-on-year, of which Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 399 million yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 71% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 97 ~ 110 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78% ~ 102%, continuing the trend of rapid growth. Meanwhile, the company's newly signed orders in 2021 increased by about 88% year-on-year, and continued to benefit from the high vision of China's innovative drug research and development and the continuous expansion of overseas business services. Looking forward to the next three years, the company's safety assessment business, drug discovery and research business will continue to show ultra-high growth on the basis of continuous deep cultivation of the Chinese market and continuous development of overseas markets.
The one-stop preclinical cro market leader took the lead in benefiting from the high vision of China's cro industry
The company is one of the cros in China that can provide preclinical integrated and one-stop services. It provides preclinical new drug R & D services for global multinational pharmaceutical enterprises, Chinese large pharmaceutical enterprises and biotech companies.
In recent years, especially since the verification of 722 clinical data, China's innovative drug R & D market has shown a vigorous development trend. Benefiting from the positive changes in the industry, the company's performance has shown rapid growth since 2014. Looking forward to the next 3-5 years, China's cro industry will continue to be in a high outlook in the industry. As one of the leading market leaders in China's preclinical one-stop cro segment, with the improvement of technical capacity and the production of new capacity, we judge that the company will continue to benefit from the high outlook of the industry and its performance will show rapid growth.
Investment advice
As a comprehensive and one-stop preclinical cro service provider in China, the company benefits from the high prospect of preclinical cro demand, the improvement of technical capacity and the production of new capacity. We judge that the company's performance will show rapid growth in the next 3 ~ 5 years. Considering the strong and rapid growth of drug discovery and preclinical research business orders and operating revenue, the early profit forecast is slightly adjusted, that is, it is expected that the operating revenue will be adjusted from RMB 1.299/2133/3199 billion to RMB 1.185/20.14/3021 billion respectively from 2021 to 2023, and the EPS will be adjusted from RMB 4.60/7.69/11.78 to RMB 4.59/7.88/11.93 respectively, corresponding to the closing price of RMB 426.51/share on January 18, 2022, PE was 92.83/54.10/35.74 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The company's order demand is lower than expected, the investment in the stock investment project is lower than expected, the core technology backbone and management risk of loss, the risk of intensified competition, and the impact of New Coronavirus epidemic.
