\u3000\u3000 Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) (000921)
Key investment points
Hisense Group's income increased rapidly and its overseas business continued to advance
1) according to the data announced by Hisense Group, the group achieved an operating revenue of 175.5 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 24%. Overseas business has become the driving force for the high growth of the group's revenue. In 2021, the group's overseas revenue was 73.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 33%, and the proportion of overseas revenue in the total revenue was 42%. The group's overseas business continues to promote the construction of its own brand. In 2021, the group's overseas independent brand revenue accounted for more than 80%, about 58.5 billion yuan.
2) according to the industry online data, the export volume of Hisense air conditioners from January to October in 2021 was 4.26 million units respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 42.78%. Meanwhile, Hisense's refrigerator export volume ranked first in China from January to November. Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) continue to promote brand going to sea and create a dynamic brand image in overseas markets through sports marketing. In 2022, the company's overseas business is expected to achieve high growth with the opportunity of Qatar world cup.
Hisense Hitachi's central air business is growing rapidly and continues to see many online leading enterprises
1) the sales scale of Hisense Hitachi in 2021 is + 38% year-on-year. We expect that the revenue of Hisense Hitachi in 2021 will be about 18 billion yuan (the revenue of Hisense Hitachi subsidiary in 2020 will be 13.3 billion yuan). According to the industry online data, from January to November 2021, the domestic sales volume of Hisense Hitachi central air conditioner multi online was + 35.40% year-on-year, and the market share of shipment was 19.45%, which has caught up with Daikin (16.49%), and the leading position of multi online central air conditioner is stable.
2) central air conditioning is superior to split air conditioning in energy efficiency and use effect. We believe that the penetration rate of central air conditioning is expected to be further improved under the background of consumption upgrading and fine decoration penetration rate. Multi online central air is the leading model of central air conditioning, which saves more external space and makes the refrigerant distribution more reasonable. From January to November of 21, the domestic and foreign sales volume of multi online central air accounted for 58.43%. We continue to be optimistic about the growth of central air conditioning, especially the multi online market.
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering that the company's traditional ice washing and household air conditioning business continues to promote the high-end and differentiation of products, it is expected that the volume and price will rise, and the performance growth is highly deterministic; In terms of central air conditioning, considering that Hisense Hitachi under the company is the absolute leader in the central air conditioning industry, its market position is stable. We estimate that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 66.864/76.562/84.173 billion yuan, with a corresponding growth rate of 38.17% / 14.50% / 9.94%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.380/1.839/2.210 billion yuan, with a corresponding growth rate of - 12.57% / 33.24% / 20.16%, corresponding to 16.18/12.14/10.11 times the current share price PE respectively. We give the company a "buy" rating of 15xpe for 22 years, corresponding to the target share price of 20.25 yuan.
Risk tips
The price rise of raw materials exceeded expectations; The demand is less than expected; Intensified market competition
