\u3000\u3000 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (000799)
Events
On January 18, 2022, the company issued a performance forecast, which is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.4 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 86%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 880 ~ 950 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 79.00% ~ 93.24%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 873 ~ 943 million, a year-on-year increase of + 98.54% ~ 114.46%. Among them, Q4 achieved an income of 760 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 160 ~ 230 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.6% ~ + 43.0%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 155 ~ 225 million, a year-on-year increase of – 5.4% ~ + 37.2%.
Business analysis
Q4 slow down the pace and build up strength. The next year will be a good start. In the 21st year, the revenue growth rate was about 86%. By product, we expect the growth rate of internal ginseng and drunkard to double; In terms of subregions, there are more than 100 million markets, with sales in Henan exceeding 500 million. Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are the second largest markets outside the province, with rapid growth in East and South China. Q4 revenue increased slightly. It is expected that the Department will control goods and destock to prepare for the peak season of the Spring Festival next year. We believe that the company has made a good start, and the payment and delivery have been promoted one after another. The growth rate of Q1 performance is worth looking forward to. Recently, the price of domestic reference in the province is about 810 yuan and that of hongtan is about 300 yuan; Among them, the internal participation implements the quota system, the strategic price within the quota is implemented, and the strategic price outside the quota is increased by 20 yuan.
The medium and long-term fragrance is unique, and the 10 billion journey is on the way. 1) Revenue side: the internal reference still takes the scale as the first, stabilizes the price and controls the quantity, and the price increase is expected to be reflected in the 22-year statement side; Drunkard accumulates strength to create a large single product. In 21 years, transparent clothes and red altar account for 20% +, inheritance and purple altar account for about 10%, and the rest is yellow altar. In 22 years, measures such as precise supply, innovation and cooperation mode with excellent merchants will be developed. Red altar and inheritance have development potential. Regionally, Henan, Hebei, Shandong and other base markets are moving towards 500-1 billion, and Beijing, East China and South China focus on building a brand highland. 2) On the profit side, the increase in the proportion of internal participation promotes the improvement of gross profit margin, and the cost investment is expected to continue to be diluted, driving the net profit margin closer to 35%.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect that the revenue growth rate in the 21st to 23rd years will be 86% / 42% / 32% respectively, and the corresponding revenue will be 3.4/48/6.4 billion yuan respectively; The profit growth rate is 90% / 53% / 39% respectively, the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 9.3/14.3/1.99 billion respectively, and the corresponding EPS is RMB 2.88/4.41/6.14 respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 64 / 42 / 30x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The progress of nationalization is not as expected, the risk of repeated epidemic, macroeconomic risk and food safety problems.
