\u3000\u3000 Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) (002873)
Main points:
Traditional Chinese medicine policies promote the development of the industry, and innovative traditional Chinese medicine is emerging
The state started to promote the development of traditional Chinese medicine from the top-level design. Since the promulgation of the law of the people's Republic of China on traditional Chinese medicine in 2016, the State Council, the State Food and drug administration, the State Administration of traditional Chinese medicine, the National Health Commission and other departments have successively promoted the construction of traditional Chinese medicine through the standardization of upstream raw materials, the optimization of talent construction, the strengthening of medical consortium, the support of medical insurance Approval optimization and other norms have explored and promoted the development of traditional Chinese medicine, and the registration and classification of innovative traditional Chinese medicine will be listed separately in 2020. At the same time, 12 new traditional Chinese medicine drugs were approved and listed in 2021, exceeding the sum of the four years from 2017 to 2020.
The company's mature products are superimposed with innovative pipelines and secondary development, with strong scalability
The company has a number of mature products, all of which have a perfect system of clinical efficacy literature and have entered a number of user guides. (1) Heyan ® Kuntai Capsule and kunlishu ® Sophora flavescens gel is a heavy product in gynecology field. It can effectively treat chronic diseases such as ovarian function decline, clinical symptoms, cervical erosion, vaginitis and other gynecological chronic diseases. Gynecological products contribute 521 million yuan, accounting for 69% of business income, and 2021-2023 is expected to maintain a growth rate of 30%. (2) Ning Bitai ® Ningbitai Capsule has good efficacy in treating lower urinary tract infection, chronic prostatitis and other diseases. It has entered a number of expert consensus and diagnosis and treatment guidelines. It is expected to maintain a growth rate of about 30% from 2021 to 2023. (3) Namely Rui ® Prunella vulgaris oral liquid has an exclusive dosage form and has good curative effect on clearing heat and detoxification. It is expected to maintain a growth rate of about 20% from 2021 to 2023. The company pays attention to the process and clinical efficacy of modern preparations of traditional Chinese medicine, and continues to invest in R & D. the secondary development of four mature varieties will quickly broaden the commercial value. In addition, the company's three new innovative traditional Chinese medicines, namely, shuyutong granule, LongQin pelvic Shu granule and Kue Jieyin capsule, have completed three phases of clinical research, including gastrointestinal postoperative treatment, pelvic inflammatory sequelae and bacterial vaginosis. They have completed clinical research and have a promising prospect. It is expected that the peak sales of new products will exceed 3 billion yuan.
Equity incentive combined with equity investment to enlarge business value
The company issued an incentive plan in April 2021, granting 3.17 million restricted shares to 60 incentive objects successively. If the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 increases by 27%, 61% and 100% respectively compared with 2020, or the year-on-year growth of 27% in three years, the proportion of sales restrictions that can be lifted is 100%. The company pays attention to the efficacy of products, and the secondary development of products continues to be promoted. Three innovative traditional Chinese medicine drugs have completed clinical trials and will be applied for soon. At the same time, the company has strong sales promotion ability, comprehensively layout sales channels such as hospital, OTC and Internet, and continuously increase academic promotion in 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government. Prescription drug products cover more than 13000 hospitals above county (District) level, including more than 1400 tertiary hospitals; OTC products cover more than 700 pharmaceutical chain companies and more than 80000 stores. The incentive objects will have more confidence and ability to complete the three-year performance doubling plan. At the same time, the company participated in huilun biology and gradually laid out a "new space" for the growth of small molecular drugs. As the first drug approved for the treatment of acute lung injury / acute respiratory distress syndrome in China, civelestat sodium for injection, a heavy product, has an excellent competition pattern. The growth rate in the four quarters after its listing in 2020 remains above 160%, The research, production and marketing ability of huilun biology will help the company grow in the future.
Investment suggestion: first coverage and "buy" rating.
We estimate that the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.004 billion yuan, 1.322 billion yuan and 1.690 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 33.68%, 31.72% and 27.78% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 102 million yuan, 135 million yuan and 187 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 38.13%, 31.98% and 38.13%. We are optimistic about the large-scale coverage from clinical end to OTC end brought by the clinical efficacy of the company's original products The pipeline revaluation brought about by the completion of phase III clinical trial of the company's three innovative traditional Chinese medicine drugs, the gradual clarity of the results brought by the company's continuous efforts in the modernization of traditional Chinese medicine, and the enthusiasm of employees promoted by the company's equity incentive. We cover for the first time and give the company a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: industry policy risks; Product R & D risk; Uncertainty of drug sales, etc.
