\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) (600315)
Performance review
The company disclosed the performance forecast for 21 years, with annual revenue of RMB 7.66 billion (+ 9%) and Q4 revenue of RMB 1.83 billion (+ 9.8%). The net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years was 655 million yuan (+ 52%), and the net profit of Q4 was 235 million yuan (+ 99%). Q4 net interest rate rose to 12.84% (+ 6pct) and 8.55% (+ 2.43pct) for the whole year.
The 21-year equity incentive target has a 21-year full exercise revenue of RMB 8.466 billion / net profit of RMB 504 million, and the minimum exercise target (80%) has a revenue of RMB 7.752 billion / net profit of RMB 431 million. The performance forecast fails to achieve the revenue target and the full exercise target of net profit, and the exercise proportion is 0. For the 20-year equity incentive, target a has a 21-year revenue of 8.3 billion yuan / net profit of 480 million yuan, target B has a 21-year revenue of 7.6 billion yuan / net profit of 410 million yuan, achieves the revenue target B and profit target a, and partially unlocks 90% in 20 years.
Business analysis
Brand side: Yuze’s profit improved, the proportion of super head live broadcast decreased, and the new products of baicaoji showed initial results. 1) Yuze 21q4 Amoy is Gmv + 1% and + 13% for the whole year. In the first half of the year (February may), subject to the high base in the same period last year, the monthly growth rate continued to decline year-on-year, and the growth rate recovered in the second half of the year. Except for the same decline in October / December due to the great promotion of siphonage, it increased rapidly in other months. Over the past 21 years, we have reduced super head cooperation and made great efforts to self broadcast and emerging channels, including buffeting / private domain / digital marketing. It is expected that Q4 marketing rates will be reduced and profits will be improved, making it the second largest source of profits of the company. 2) In December, baicaoji tmall Gmv + 18%, 21q4 + 19% and the whole year + 15% respectively returned to positive growth for the first time after declining for two consecutive years (19 and 20 years); Taiji and new Qibai series of new products are the main online promotion of the brand, the product sales ranking is high, and the contribution proportion of new products is increased.
Channel side: multi platform refined operation, increase the proportion of e-commerce, and optimize the overall profitability. 1) Tmall strengthened store self broadcasting, and JD / pinduoduo / shuaikuai achieved rapid growth. The same caliber of the double 11 e-commerce channels increased by 38%, including tmall + 35% and pinduoduo + 200%. Tiktok, Herborist / zlb / tiktok / Herborist has a smaller overall body weight but higher self broadcasting (90%). The expected benefit of the jitter strategy and the initial dividend is enough to boost growth. 2) The proportion of offline new retail increased, and the traditional CS channel and Watson’s increased brightly.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Q4 is still dragged down by the special channel, with stable revenue growth, excellent operation of high margin skin care business, and bright new retail / CS / e-commerce. Guided by the 123 strategy, the company has gradually implemented multi brand / multi category / multi-channel reform. It is expected that the group operation ability will be strengthened, and the 21-year profit forecast will be increased by 22%. At present, the EPS in 21-23 years is 0.95/1.11/1.48 yuan, corresponding to pe44 / 38 / 28 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The sales of new products are less than expected, the marketing launch efficiency is less than expected, and the repair of special channel / overseas business is less than expected.
