\u3000\u3000 Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756)
Events
The company released the performance forecast for 2021 on the evening of January 18. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be about 872 million yuan – 924 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 238% – 258%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 753 million to RMB 789 million, with a year-on-year increase of 316% – 336%; EPS is 2.18 yuan – 2.31 yuan.
Commentary
It is estimated that the net profit contributed by Q4 lithium battery is about 250 million yuan, and the performance is in line with expectations.
According to the median value of performance forecast, the annual performance is expected to be RMB 900 million, corresponding to the net profit of Q4 in a single quarter of about RMB 350 million. Among them, the performance of stainless steel is estimated to be 100 million yuan and that of lithium carbonate is 250 million yuan.
Q4 lithium battery business calculation: 3000 tons in a single quarter, corresponding to the net profit of 83000 yuan / ton of Q4 lithium carbonate. Considering the certain lag of product price, the discount of long order customers and the small increase in cost caused by a small part of purchased ore, its Q4 basically meets the expectation.
In the past 22 years, the volume and price of lithium carbonate increased simultaneously and entered the year of performance explosion. “Capacity”: the phase II 20000 ton project is about to be put into operation. It is expected that the first 10000 ton production line will be put into operation before the end of the first quarter and the second 10000 ton production line will be put into operation before the end of the second quarter. It is estimated that the output in 22 and 23 years will be 22000 tons and 32000 tons respectively. “Price”: it is difficult to ease the tight supply and demand of the industry in the next 2-3 years. It is expected that the average price will remain 300000 / ton this year and next. The company has experienced the layout of lithium battery business for more than 3 years. The lithium carbonate business has entered the performance explosion period since 22 years, and is expected to maintain high profits for more than 2 years.
With strong performance certainty and high cashability, a certain valuation premium can be given in the future. The company is a high-quality private enterprise with excellent management. The original main business is traditional stainless steel rod and wire rod, accounting for the second in China; Financial stability, debt ratio of 21%. The performance contribution of lithium carbonate in 21 years exceeded that of stainless steel business for the first time. Based on the company’s previous experience and management ability, the performance in 22 years has a high degree of fulfillment. We believe that a certain certainty premium can be given.
Profit forecast & investment suggestions
According to the company’s performance forecast for 21 years, considering the current tight supply and demand of lithium, it is expected that the average price in 22-23 years will remain 300000 / ton, an increase of more than 50% compared with the previous forecast. Therefore, the performance growth trend in 22-23 years is strong, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years will be increased by 21%, 245%, 269% to 900 million yuan, 4086 million yuan and 4933 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 222 yuan, 1070 yuan and 12.15 yuan, corresponding to 42 times, 9 times and 8 times of PE respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk statement
Downstream demand is lower than expected; The new capacity and re production capacity of lithium ore exceeded expectations.
