\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) (002709)
Key investment points
The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 to be 546-746 million yuan, down 3-29% month on month, slightly lower than the market expectation. The company expects that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be RMB 2.1-2.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 294.09% – 331.62%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will be RMB 546-746 million, with a year-on-year increase of 3668% – 5048%, a month-on-month decrease of 3-29%, slightly lower than the market expectation. In 2021, the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted by RMB 2.059-2.259 billion, a year-on-year increase of 289.72% – 327.57%, of which the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted by RMB 549-749 million in 2021q4, a month-on-month increase of – 26-1%.
The shipment of electrolyte 21q4 increased month on month, and the shipment in 22 years is expected to double year on year. In terms of shipment, we expect the company to ship 51000-52000 tons in 2021q4, an increase of 35% month on month +. In 2021, we expect to ship nearly 150000 tons, a year-on-year increase of double. In terms of profit, the price of hexafluoride in 21q4 has risen all the way to 500000 / ton +. We expect the profit per ton of electrolyte to decline by 20% to about 14000 / ton month on month. The electrolyte business contributes about 700 million yuan of profit, with a slight increase month on month. It is expected that the profit per ton of 22q1 will recover. In 2022, the downstream demand is strong. We expect the shortage of hexafluoride to be maintained until the middle of 2022. We expect the company to ship 300000-350000 tons, more than double year-on-year. The electrolyte has a long order, smooth hexafluoride periodicity, and the profitability is expected to be maintained.
The integrated layout of hexafluoride strengthens the leading position, and increases the production capacity planning of lifsi and various additives. The company has built 150000 tons of electrolyte capacity in Ningde, Guangzhou and Jiujiang. After all the capacity is completed, the company’s capacity is expected to reach 1.4 million tons +. In addition, the company accelerated the production capacity layout of lifsi. The company has a new lithium salt production capacity of 6000 tons, taking the lead in realizing mass production, and the mass production progress and scale are the first in the industry. In addition, the company also has new additives such as VC, lithium difluorophosphate and DTD, and the production capacity will be gradually released in 22-23 years, so as to strengthen the company’s integrated competitiveness and increase profits, which can effectively hedge the decline of hexafluoride price cycle.
The traditional daily chemical industry grew steadily, and iron phosphate contributed to some profits, with a high growth in 22 years. Previously, the company’s iron phosphate business was in the development period, resulting in some losses. At present, the company has an iron phosphate capacity of 30000 tons. It has started cooperation with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Yuneng, GuoXuan, Byd Company Limited(002594) and other enterprises, and the capacity has been released smoothly. We expect Q4 iron phosphate business to contribute some profits. The company plans to build a 300000 ton iron phosphate capacity. We expect that the company’s iron phosphate is expected to ship 100000 tons + in 22 years, With the scale-up, the profit per ton will increase significantly, which is expected to reach 3000 yuan / ton +. The price of carbomer fell back to the normal level. We expect that Q4 carbomer and traditional daily chemical business will contribute about RMB 60 million in profits in 21 years, with a slight increase month on month. Throughout the year, Carbomer is expected to contribute 100 million yuan of profits, and traditional daily chemicals contribute 100 million yuan, totaling 200 million yuan of profits. The company added 60000 tons of new daily chemical materials to support the stable growth of daily chemical business.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: as the downstream prosperity continues to exceed expectations, we adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to RMB 2.202/46.01/5.5 billion (originally expected to be RMB 2.425/44.59/5.405 billion), with a year-on-year increase of 313% / 109% / 20%, corresponding to PE of 46 / 22 / 19x, 35 times PE in 2022, corresponding to target price of RMB 169, and maintained the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected, the policy is lower than expected, and the competition is intensified
