\u3000\u3000 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (600309)
Conclusions and suggestions:
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 21 years. The company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 24-25.2 billion yuan in 21 years, yoy + 139% - 151%, of which Q4 is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.46-5.66 billion yuan in a single quarter, yoy-5% - + 21%, qoq-26% - 6%, which is in line with the expectation.
The company's performance increased significantly year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the global economic recovery, the boost of market demand and the increase of chemical product prices. In addition, the company's MDI technical transformation, ethylene and other new production capacity and new devices were put into operation, and the volume and price of major products such as polyurethane, petrochemical and fine chemicals increased simultaneously, with a significant increase in operating performance year-on-year. As a global polyurethane leader, the company continues to expand its chain and production, actively distributes the new petrochemical material industry, always maintains high-speed development, ensures future performance growth, and maintains the "buy" rating.
MDI maintained a high boom and the volume and price of polyurethane sections rose simultaneously: MDI maintained a high boom in the past 21 years, and the price of the company's main products increased significantly. The average price of aggregate MDI reached 197600 yuan / ton, yoy + 37%, the average price of pure MDI reached 221300 yuan / ton, yoy + 24%, and the average price of TDI reached 144700 yuan / ton, yoy + 19%. The average price of aggregate MDI in January 22 reached 211200 yuan / ton, 15% higher than that in January 21, and the average price of pure MDI reached 211800 yuan / ton, 2% lower than that in January 21. With the recovery of demand in the warm spring season, it is expected that the MDI boom will continue. In terms of output, in 21 years, the company's Yantai MDI unit completed 1.1 million T / a technical transformation and capacity expansion, further improved MDI production capacity and increased production and sales year-on-year. At present, Wanhua has the largest MDI production capacity in the world, and plans to expand the production capacity of 600000 tons in Ningbo and 1.6 million tons in Fujian. The subsequent increase of global MDI production capacity mainly depends on Wanhua. The production capacity expansion will further improve the market share and consolidate the leading position of the company.
The petrochemical sector gradually increased in volume and improved the overall industrial chain: during the year, the company's new units such as million tons of ethylene gradually increased in volume, and the production and sales of petrochemical products increased year-on-year. Superimposed on the rise in the price of petrochemical products in 21 years, the revenue of the company's petrochemical sector increased rapidly and accelerated the growth of the company's performance. 1-3q company's revenue in the petrochemical section increased by 168%, accounting for 39.8%, which is close to the polyurethane section. With the gradual development of the petrochemical and new materials sector and the gradual increase of the proportion of revenue, the company's whole industry layout appears, which is expected to iron the cycle and grow into a full platform chemical giant.
Actively layout the new material industry with sufficient growth momentum: the company layout the new material sector and actively enter the field of batteries and degradable materials to drive the long-term growth of the company. In April, the company merged its wholly-owned subsidiary Yantai zhuoneng Lithium Battery Co., Ltd; In August 21, the company established a joint venture with Huaneng Group to jointly build 600mwp fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station project; In January 22, the 50000 ton lithium iron phosphate project of Meishan base of the company was officially started; According to the company's environmental impact assessment, 200000 tons of Poe and 92000 tons of octahexene are planned in Penglai. The company is growing from MDI leader to comprehensive chemical leader. With the improvement of industrial chain layout and the increase of product types, the periodicity is expected to weaken, the prospect is broad and the future can be expected.
Profit forecast: we maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's net profit for the year 21 / 22 / 23 will be 24.85/256.3/26.38 billion yuan, yoy + 148% / + 3% / + 3%, corresponding to EPS of 7.92/8.16/8.40 yuan. At present, the PE corresponding to the A-share price is 12 / 12 / 11 times. Considering the sufficient growth momentum of the company, we maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: 1. The product price is lower than expected; 2. The new project is not put into operation as expected.
