\u3000\u3000 Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) (600702)
Event: according to the preliminary calculation of the company, the revenue in 2021 will increase by about 83% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.23-1.28 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 112% - 121%.
The revenue exceeded the expectation of about 200 million, and the profit remained flexible. According to the announcement, we expect the company's revenue in 21 years to be close to 5 billion, about 200 million higher than the market expectation. Among them, the revenue of 21q4 was 1.3-1.4 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 38% - 49%, maintaining the sustainability of growth; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 260-310 million, with a year-on-year increase of - 4% - 15%. Through channel research, we expect that the company's cost investment level is normal in the fourth quarter, and the company has not pressed goods from dealers and promoted payment collection through cost investment, and the overall channel cost has narrowed in 22 years, so we want to further support the price. The company's annual payment back in 21 years exceeded the challenge target, and part of the payment back was reserved for 22 years. The recovery performance of the old market exceeded the expectations of the sales team.
In 2021, the development will be healthy and the channel growth will be sustainable. The implementation of the old wine strategy in 2019 and the "mess" of sauce wine in 2020 are the key. The former reduces the social inventory in 2020 from more than 1 billion to more than 600 million. In 2021, 2 billion more goods were delivered and the inventory remained for two months. The latter promotes the expansion of the sub high-end price band and improves the channel profits. Dealers who are willing to taste earn about 10-20 yuan per bottle to about 50 yuan per bottle, And the turnover speed of dealers increased. The company's revenue growth in 2021 mainly depends on the confidence recovery of old dealers in the old market, and there is no overdraft channel and future.
The advantages of old wine are difficult to replicate in the short term and are willing to be a scarce resource. Shede old wine resource is the advantage that most Luzhou flavor wines are difficult to replicate within ten years, and it is the product of the special background of the times. With the awakening of consumers' awareness of quality, the standardization of the whole industry and the need of various wine enterprises to improve quality, old wine is a differentiation strategy with the lowest education cost. Luzhou flavor liquor enterprises that are not good at telling old wine stories now will speak louder in 5-10 years.
Profit forecast and investment rating: at present, with the improvement of industry concentration, the scarcity of famous wine resources and the call of vintage wine standard, we are willing to have the first mover advantage of both famous wine and old wine. The new major shareholder has brought potential changes, and the enthusiasm of dealers has been significantly improved. At present, the potential energy of giving up is upward, the channel makes money, the old merchants are willing to pay back, and the new merchants are willing to join. A bottle of old wine at the lower edge of the secondary high-end has a strong potential. We have also repeatedly stressed that we are willing to look at the collection in the short term, model innovation in the medium term and firm promotion of the strategy of old wine in the long term. We expect that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 3.81, 6.03 and 8.27 yuan / share respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating of the company.
Risk factors: repeated epidemic situation leads to the slowdown of mobile sales; The nationwide expansion was less than expected.
