\u3000\u3000 Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) (688200)
According to the company's announcement on the pre increase of performance in 2021, it is expected that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 422-465 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 112.06-133.67%; It is estimated that in 2021, the company's net profit deducted from non parent company will be 417-460 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 181.76-210.81%.
Key points supporting rating
Q4 single quarter net profit increased significantly year-on-year, and the optimization of product structure promoted the improvement of profit. According to the results released by 21q3, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 111-154 million in 21q4, with a year-on-year increase of 79.03% - 148.39% and a month on month change of - 31.90% to - 5.52%; 21q4 is expected to realize a net profit of 97-140 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 193.94% - 324.24% and a month on month change of - 44.89% to - 20.45%. The profit increased significantly in the fourth quarter, which is in line with the comprehensive results of the high prosperity of the testing industry and the improvement of the company's production capacity. As of Q3, the company's inventory amount was 159 million yuan and contract liabilities were 140 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 149% and 265% respectively. It is expected that the orders on hand will increase significantly. At present, the company's Tianjin industrialization base has been officially opened, the production capacity of 8200 series advantageous products has been guaranteed, 8300 series products have accelerated market penetration, and the optimization of product structure provides power for the company's performance growth. At the same time, the improvement of the company's production capacity forms a good scale effect, and the cost side control ensures deterministic profitability.
The company has a strong customer base. The number of machines shipped by the company in the world has exceeded 4000, and the large-scale installed stock has formed a deep customer stickiness. The company has entered leading customers in wafer manufacturing (well-known manufacturers such as TSMC, Italy France semiconductor, China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) ), IC Design (silicon Lijie, MPs, Shengbang micro, etc.), and packaging and testing (three major packaging and testing plants in China such as Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) , Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) , Tianshui Huatian Technology Co.Ltd(002185) ). Strong customer base and high demand for test equipment, the company's product sales are expected to continue to expand.
The sealing and testing equipment industry is booming, and the performance of international brands has maintained high growth. The global demand for chips remains enthusiastic. Under the trend of digital transformation and the increase of unit silicon content, the test demand has increased significantly, and the test requirements have also increased. Semi predicts that the market space of test equipment will increase by 26% year-on-year to US $7.6 billion in 2021, indicating that the demand for test equipment is accelerating and the demand for high value-added products is also growing. According to the company announcements of besi, K & S and tereda, the revenue of besi and K & S, the leader of packaging equipment, increased by more than 70% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of last year, and the revenue of tereda, the leader of testing equipment, increased by about 40% in a single quarter.
Profit forecast
In view of the continuous penetration of the company's products into global customers, sufficient production capacity and high prosperity of the testing industry, the net profit forecasts for 21-23 years were raised to RMB 441 / 638 / 846 million respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The supply of spare parts is insufficient, the uncertainty of international marginal politics, and the R & D investment is less than expected.
