\u3000\u3000 Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) (300763)
The company released the performance forecast for 2021, and the annual performance is expected to increase by 43% - 68%. The company benefits from the improvement of photovoltaic demand and string penetration, and the energy storage business is expected to grow in large quantities; Maintain buy rating.
Key points supporting rating
It is predicted that the profit in 2021 will increase by 43% - 68% year-on-year: the company issued the performance forecast for 2021, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 455-535 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 43.03% - 68.18%, deducting the non net profit of 380-460 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36.15% - 64.81%. According to the performance forecast, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 92-172 million yuan in 2021q4, with a year-on-year change of - 14.77% - 59.37% and a month on month change of - 26.35% - 37.72%; Deduct 79-159 million yuan of non-profit, with a year-on-year change of -9.47% ~ 82.63% and a month on month change of -20.62% - 60.15%. The company's forecast performance is in line with expectations.
The sales volume of inverter products increased significantly in 2021: the company has a balanced global layout and continues to take the lead in Europe, the United States, Southeast Asia, Australia, Latin America and other markets. In 2021, the company's overall order volume was full, actively responded to the pressure at the end of the supply chain and expanded production capacity to improve the delivery capacity of products, continue to maintain good brand awareness and improve the market competitiveness of products. In the first half of 2021, the company achieved 338300 inverter sales, with a year-on-year increase of 85.37%. We expect that the annual sales will still maintain a significant growth in 2021, and the growth rate of photovoltaic terminal demand in 2022 is expected to reach 40%. The company's photovoltaic inverter sales are expected to continue the high growth trend, and the profitability is expected to rise with the easing of the tension between shipping and components.
Energy storage inverter is expected to continue to increase in volume: in 2021, the company's energy storage inverter business increased in volume, of which the revenue in the first half of the year was 66.43 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 642%. The company actively distributes the energy storage market and expands production capacity. We expect that the energy storage inverter business is expected to continue to increase rapidly with the release of energy storage demand, forming a new growth point of the company's performance.
Valuation
Under the current share capital, combined with the company's performance forecast and industry conditions, we adjusted the company's predicted earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 to 2.06/3.89/5.28 yuan (the original forecast data was 2.23/3.67/4.90 yuan), corresponding to 105.2/55.7/41.0 times of P / E; Maintain buy rating.
Main risks of rating
Covid-19 epidemic impact exceeded expectations; Photovoltaic policy does not meet expectations; Price competition exceeds expectations; Risk of overseas trade barriers; The demand of energy storage industry did not meet expectations
