Social zero in December was + 1.7% year-on-year and + 12.5% year-on-year in 2021
The National Bureau of statistics released the total retail sales of social consumer goods (hereinafter referred to as “social zero”) in December 2021. In December 2021, the total amount of social zero in China was 4126.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, and the growth rate decreased by 2.2pct month on month; Among them, the retail sales above the quota was 1670.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. Throughout the year, China’s total social zero in 2021 was 44082.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, the average growth rate in the two years was 3.9%, and the actual growth rate after deducting price factors was 10.7%. By region, the retail sales of urban consumer goods in December were 35243.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%; The retail sales of rural consumer goods reached 602.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.8%. Overall, affected by the repeated superposition of the epidemic and the downturn in consumer demand, the growth rate of social consumption fell in December.
In terms of categories, the performance of optional and mandatory categories is differentiated, and the offline service category continues to be depressed due to the impact of the epidemic
In terms of price factors, CPI in December 2021 was + 1.5% year-on-year (including food cpi-1.2%). According to the category of social zero data in December: among the required consumer categories, daily necessities, beverages, grain, oil and food, tobacco and alcohol were + 18.8% / + 12.6% / + 11.3% / + 7.0% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rate was + 10.2pct / – 2.9pct / – 3.5pct / – 6.3pct respectively in November, maintaining a relatively stable growth. Among the optional consumer categories, cultural office and cosmetics increased slightly, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.4% / + 2.5% respectively, but the growth rate was – 10.7pct / – 5.7pct respectively in November; Gold and silver jewelry, clothing, shoes and hats and household appliances had a year-on-year growth of – 0.2% / – 2.3% / – 6.0% respectively, and a month-on-month growth of – 5.9pct / – 1.8pct / – 12.6pct respectively in November. It can be seen that the growth rate of optional consumer products has decreased. In terms of service consumption, the catering revenue in December was 484.1 billion yuan (year-on-year – 2.2%), and the growth rate was basically the same month on month. Due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, the offline service continued to be depressed.
By channel, the online retail sales of physical goods in 2021 increased by + 12.0% year-on-year
In terms of online channels, the national online retail sales in 2021 were 13088.4 billion yuan (+ 14.1%), of which the online retail sales of physical goods were 10804.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of + 12.0%, accounting for 24.5% of social zero, which was the same as that from January to November. According to the monthly data, we calculated that the year-on-year growth rate of online retail sales of physical goods in December was + 1.9%, down 5.5pct from November (+ 7.4%). Among the online retail sales of physical goods, food, clothing and consumer goods increased by 17.8%, 8.3% and 12.5% respectively in 2021. In terms of offline channels, the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of supermarkets above Designated Size, convenience stores, department stores, specialty stores and specialty stores in 2021 was + 6.0% / + 16.9% / + 11.7% / + 12.8% / + 12.0% respectively.
It is suggested to pay attention to the beauty economy, e-commerce and gold jewelry segmentation leaders
Overall, the epidemic repeatedly affected consumer demand, and the growth rate of social consumption fell in December. In terms of investment suggestions, it focuses on three main lines: (1) the main line of beauty economy (medical beauty and cosmetics), focusing on Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Fujian Green Pine Co.Ltd(300132) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) (New), and Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) of beneficiary objects; (2) The main line of e-commerce focuses on depression market (sinking and cross-border market) and emerging business formats (live broadcasting and community e-commerce), with emphasis on Xiamen Jihong Technology Co.Ltd(002803) ; (3) Offline consumption focuses on the gold and jewelry sector, focusing on Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) and benefiting targets such as Chow Tai Fook and Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) .
Risk warning: repeated impact of epidemic situation; The operating costs of enterprises have increased.
