Key investment points
The impact of lithium carbonate price rise is limited, and the impact on the gross profit of battery enterprises is controllable
The market is too worried about the impact of lithium metal price rise on battery cost and gross profit margin. At present, the increase of battery price has led to the rise of raw material cost in a high proportion. For company C, the cost increase of about 150000 / T lithium carbonate corresponds to the increase of material cost of nearly 0.1 yuan / wh. The average price increase of company C last year was 10%, which can transmit the increase of this part of cost in a high proportion.
Mainstream car companies maintain or slightly adjust prices, and the impact on electric vehicle sales is limited
Auto enterprises take the market share and sales volume as the core objectives, dilute R & D investment and highly leveraged fixed assets with high sales volume, and the decline of short-term gross profit does not change the long-term strategic planning. Mainstream auto companies will probably not or slightly raise the guidance price of listed models in the future, which has a limited impact on sales.
The tight balance of lithium resource supply can support the mainstream expectation of the market
In 2022, the effective increment of lithium carbonate is about 180000 tons to a total of about 700000 tons. Based on the conservative increment of 150000 tons, excluding the demand of 33000 tons corresponding to the energy storage and 3C increment of about 52gwh, it is expected to support the increment of 3.5 million new energy vehicles, that is, it can support the sales of at least 10 million units next year. The global subsidy policy continues, and the sales of electric vehicles maintain a high increase. China's subsidy policy for electric vehicles will be implemented in 2022, and the refund and subsidy of 30% will remain for the whole year; The subsidy policies of European countries have been postponed, and the pressure on carbon emissions continues; The United States may launch a new bbba deal and increase the subsidy for electric vehicles to US $12500. Subsidies from various countries continue, adding to the large volume of new electric vehicles by car enterprises. It is estimated that the global sales volume of electric vehicles will reach 10.54 million in 2022, of which the sales volume in China is expected to reach 5.5 million.
Investment advice
Main line 1: the turning point of profitability in the battery sector has reached, and both volume and price are about to rise. The key recommendations are [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ] and [ Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) ]; Main line 2: in 2022, the high-end capacity of diaphragm and copper foil subject to equipment capacity is still tight, and the release pace of PVDF and negative pole graphitization effective capacity subject to energy assessment and environmental assessment is still slower than the high increase in demand. The above links are expected to see a simultaneous increase in volume and price, focusing on [ Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ], [ Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) ], [ Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) ], [ Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) ], [ Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) ], [ Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ] and [ Lecron Industrial Development Group Co.Ltd(300343) ]. Main line 3: emphasize the middle and upstream suppliers of battery manufacturers in the United States and Europe, focusing on [ Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) ], [ Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) ] and [ Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ]. Main line 4: focus on the third-party suppliers [ Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) ], [ Wolong Electric Group Co.Ltd(600580) ], [ Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) ], [ Zhuhai Enpower Electric Co.Ltd(300681) ] of electric vehicle electric drive, electric control, motor and other equipment and system integration in large quantities.
Risk tips
The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the uncertainty risk of subsidy policy, the price rise of raw materials and the risk of supply chain.
