Talk every Monday: Comments on financial data in December – social and financial structure is still weak
Event: on January 12, the central bank released financial data for December 2021. Among them, the increment of social financing scale in December 2021 was 2.37 trillion yuan, 650.8 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The stock of social financing scale increased by 10.3% year-on-year and 0.2pct month on month. RMB loans increased by 1.13 trillion yuan, 130 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The balance of RMB loans increased by 11.6% year-on-year and decreased by 0.1pct month on month. The growth rates of M1 and M2 were 3.5% and 9% respectively, up 0.5pct month on month.
Analysis of social financing scale: weak loan demand + financial postposition effect
In December, the scale of social financing increased by 2.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 650.8 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly driven by corporate bonds and government bonds. The financial postposition effect is obvious, and the credit demand is still weak. Specifically:
In terms of on balance sheet financing, RMB loans increased by 1.03 trillion yuan in December, a year-on-year decrease of 111.2 billion yuan, and foreign currency loans increased by – 64.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.3 billion yuan. The credit growth was lower than expected, mainly because the demand for resident credit and medium and long-term loans of enterprises was still weak. On the one hand, it was affected by the lack of effective credit demand, on the other hand, the power of banks to extend credit at the end of the year was weak.
From the perspective of off balance sheet financing, entrusted loans decreased by 41.6 billion yuan in December, and trust loans decreased by 458 billion yuan, which increased significantly compared with November. On the one hand, the supervision of non-standard supervision has not been relaxed, on the other hand, the trust due in December has a large scale. However, due to the large pressure drop of trust loans in December last year, the pressure drop of trust loans in December did not drag down social finance. Undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by – 141.8 billion yuan, an increase of 79.8 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly affected by the increase of bill discount scale.
In terms of direct financing, 222.5 billion yuan of corporate bonds and 211.8 billion yuan of domestic stocks of non-financial enterprises were added in December, an increase of 178.9 billion yuan and 99.2 billion yuan respectively year-on-year, corresponding to the acceleration of the increase of government bonds, indicating that the financial postposition effect is obvious.
In December, government bonds increased by 1.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 459.2 billion yuan year-on-year, continuing the trend of high growth since October, and the financial backwardness formed a foundation for social finance. RMB loan analysis: weak loan demand
In December, RMB loans increased by 1.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 130 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Among them, the scale of bill financing increased by 74.6 billion yuan year-on-year, and the scale of medium and long-term loans decreased by 294.1 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting the lack of effective credit demand. Specifically, for sub sectors:
RMB loans to the residential sector increased by 371.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 191.9 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 15.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 98.5 billion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 355.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 98.5 billion yuan. On the one hand, it is affected by the repeated epidemic and weak credit demand, on the other hand, it is related to the rhythm of bank credit supply.
Short term loans to the enterprise sector decreased by 105.4 billion yuan, 309.7 billion yuan in the same period of 20 years, and 204.3 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Medium and long-term loans to enterprises increased by 339.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 210.7 billion yuan. This is mainly because the capital expenditure and medium and long-term financing demand of manufacturing enterprises are still weak. The net financing amount of bills was 408.7 billion yuan, an increase of 74.6 billion yuan year-on-year, showing a bottom impulse phenomenon.
Deposit side analysis: increased financial expenditure
At the end of December, the balance of M2 was 238.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 9% year-on-year and 0.5pct month on month; M1 balance was 64.74 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and a month on month increase of 0.5pct, reflecting the slowdown in cash flow pressure after the marginal easing of real estate policy.
In December, RMB deposits increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.37 trillion yuan year-on-year. Mainly affected by the low base in the same period of 20 years, the balance of RMB deposits increased by 9.3% year-on-year and the growth rate increased by 0.7pct month on month. Among them, fiscal deposits decreased by 1.03 trillion yuan this month, 954 billion yuan in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 76.2 billion yuan, reflecting the increase of fiscal expenditure.
Investment strategy: the credit data in December is still weak, which may disturb bank stocks in the short term. However, from the perspective of credit supply, the pressure on bank expansion will slow down in 22 years under the background of the introduction of macro-control policies and sufficient reserves of Bank projects. It is recommended to pay attention to the banks with stable operation and excellent performance in the 21-year performance express, such as Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) , etc.
Risk tip: policy risk; The risk of macroeconomic recovery falling short of expectations; The global covid-19 epidemic continues to deteriorate.
