In 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles exceeded 3.5 million, and the sales volume in December reached a single month record
According to the data released by China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were booming in 2021, and the annual cumulative sales reached 3.52 million, with a year-on-year increase of 158% and a penetration rate of 13.4%, 8 percentage points higher than that in 2020; Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in December was 531000, an increase of 11.1% month on month, a year-on-year increase of more than 1.1 times, a record high. In 2022, with the listing of new cars at all levels and market segments, supply continues to drive demand and support the continuous growth of downstream sales. It is expected that the sales volume is expected to exceed 5 million and the industry boom continues to rise.
The performance forecast of lithium battery material enterprises exceeded expectations, focusing on the links with clear pattern, obvious advantages and tight supply and demand
This week, lithium battery enterprises Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) successively released performance forecasts for 2021, exceeding market expectations. In 2021, lithium battery midstream materials benefited from the high demand of downstream, and the performance showed high growth. At present, battery factories and material factories have steadily expanded their production capacity, the production schedule of each link has climbed month by month, and the demand of the middle and lower reaches has been increasing. Non power batteries such as energy storage have also gradually increased, and the industry still maintains high-speed growth. The industry’s high growth and high outlook support the sector upward. It is recommended to pay attention to battery plants with global competitiveness at the head and midstream material links with still tight relative supply and demand, such as negative electrode, graphitization, diaphragm, etc.
The contradiction between supply and demand supports the central high of lithium price without affecting downstream demand, and the performance of lithium section is gradually realized
Under the background that lithium demand continues to rise and urgent, and the installed capacity and production schedule rise month by month, the contradiction between lithium salt supply and demand intensifies, and the spot futures price and long-term individual price continue to rise. The difficulty and progress of lithium resource development are difficult to match the speed and magnitude of downstream demand growth. Supply and demand strongly support the medium and long-term high lithium price. At present, lithium salt and concentrate inventories in all links are at a low level, while the growing capacity expansion in the middle and lower reaches, goods preparation years ago and concerns about lithium supply in all links have further amplified the demand for lithium resources in the upper reaches; Therefore, throughout the industrial chain, the strategy of upstream lithium resources has been continuously strengthened, and all parties have increased the global layout of lithium. The supply of lithium salt has become the decisive factor for the release of capacity in the middle and downstream, and the profit has moved up.
Investment suggestions: it is suggested to focus on three main investment lines: first, battery plants with capacity release, cost pressure relief and gross profit recovery, such as: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) ; Second, lithium resource companies with high lithium price supported by supply and demand and expected to realize excess profits, such as: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ; Third, midstream material link companies with clear pattern, obvious advantages and tight supply and demand, such as: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , etc.
Risk warning: the development of new energy vehicles is not as expected; Disruptive breakthroughs in related technologies; Downstream demand is lower than expected; Product prices fell more than expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials.
