[market week review and northbound monitoring]
This week, the value of CITIC Baijiu fell 4.65%, which was 4.35% lower than CITIC food and beverage, 1.63% lower than the Shanghai Composite Index. The better performing stocks were Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) and Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) , and the top 3 stocks were Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) and Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) . This week Baijiu north capital outflow 24 billion 580 million yuan, get the net capital inflow before three of the stocks are Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , capital inflow ranked three of the shares are Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) .
[investment perspective]
We Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu, the key to the top two months of high-end liquor opportunities, the recent high-end liquor continued to release good, continue to push the high-end Baijiu sector, high-end liquor or will continue to usher in catalysis, the key recommendation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . We propose that the liquor business has strong barriers in the Baijiu sector and high-end Baijiu, and the business model has the superiority. The performance stability in 2022 is still strong. At present, the market is expecting higher price increase and higher performance. We think that the high-end Baijiu has been shifting at present, and the following will be mainly based on stable operation, so as to improve the quality of its own business. In terms of the price increase, the core logic of the high-end sector is the price increase. We believe that the ability of high-end liquor companies to raise prices has been there all the time. But enterprises steadily increase their prices according to their own development rhythm, which is the way to long-term development. The excessive price increase in the short term or the overall operation quality of enterprises will be affected. Therefore, it is suggested to build high-end Baijiu with a long vision. It is a long-term promising high-quality core asset. High-end Baijiu will continue to push hard and steady Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) .
The secondary high-end fell overall this week, among which Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) , Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) , Gansu Huangtai Wine-Marketing Industry Co.Ltd(000995) performed better. The recent high-end Baijiu continued to shock downward, gradually verified the early view of our view that “short-term rise is not sustainable.” Still maintain the neutral and cautious view of the sub high-end sector.
We believe that sub high-end liquor is to promote the process of nationalization and high-end by expanding channels, so as to improve profitability. With the high-end price increase opening up market space for the secondary high-end, some secondary high-end liquor enterprises promote the pace of channel expansion, control goods to lay the foundation for the price increase, and realize the logic in the early stage.
At present, we maintain a neutral and cautious attitude towards the sub high-end sector as a whole. We believe that the macro economy may be down in the first half of this year, and the performance will gradually tend to be flat, which can not support the high valuation in the early stage. It is suggested to focus on companies with national, high-end investment opportunities and high performance growth stability.
[recommended subject matter]
Suggestions: Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568)
Risk warning: the price of terminal products is disorder, the backlog of channel inventory is too heavy, the actual sales are not as good as expected, the brand operation is not enough, and the price of liquor can not be raised smoothly, and the epidemic situation has repeatedly affected the normal consumption of Baijiu.
