Automatic driving is advanced to a high level, and a small climax of lidar loading is coming. Since 2021, Weilai et7, et5, Xiaopeng P5, L2-L4 Huawei Jihu and others with L3 level automatic driving capability have been released successively. The “progressive” car enterprises have gradually crossed the watershed between L2 advanced auxiliary driving and L3 automatic driving. IDC expects that in 24 years, the shipment volume of L3 and above autonomous passenger vehicles will increase to 860000, and the 20-24cagr will be as high as 128%. On the other hand, with the commercialization of robotaxi / robotruck, the fleet scale in this field will accelerate in the future. Sullivan research predicts that the new fleet scale will exceed 600000 in 2025. Under the “progressive” and “leapfrog” two wheel drive, automatic driving accelerates. As the key sensing technology to realize high-level automatic driving, lidar will also usher in a broad development space. Sullivan research predicts that by 25 years, the global lidar market will be US $13.5 billion, with 19-25 ecagr65%; Among them, the market scale of unmanned driving and ADAS will increase to USD 3.5/4.6 billion respectively, and the 19-25 ecagr will be 81% / 84%. In 25 years, the vehicle mounted lidar will account for more than 60% of the overall lidar market.
The technical route is iterated rapidly, and the supply side barriers are broken one by one. At present, there is no end to the technical route of lidar. Each technical route has great differences and low homology, showing a trend of letting a hundred flowers bloom. All forces and technical schools jointly promote the cost reduction and efficiency increase of lidar. At present, the cost of mechanical lidar is high, which is more suitable for R & D and testing projects such as driverless. In the short term, semi-solid rotating mirror and MEMS will take the lead in getting on the car and leading the medium and long-range lidar. Chinese foreign enterprises such as luminar, Valeo, Huawei, Dajiang livox and Suteng juchuang will take the lead in meeting the vehicle regulations for mass production. In the long run, solid-state flash and OPA technologies with higher process level may become the mainstream after they are mature. At the same time, with the continuous development of chip and array technology, livox expects that the price of lidar is expected to drop to 100 yuan in the future, helping the large-scale loading of lidar.
China’s industrial chain is becoming more and more mature, opening a $10 billion blue ocean market. According to yole’s statistics, in the global on-board lidar market in the past 21 years, Chinese enterprises Sagitar juchuang / livox / Huawei / Hesai technology / totem accounted for 10% / 7% / 3% / 3% / 3% respectively, of which Sagitar juchuang and livox ranked second / fourth in the world, belonging to the first echelon in China. Driven by policies and the downstream market environment, Chinese lidar enterprises began to emerge and develop rapidly. With the cross-border entry of Huawei, Dajiang and other large scientific and technological manufacturers, China’s lidar industry chain has become more and more mature. Under the dual role of demand side and supply side, the automotive lidar industry is expected to open a 10 billion blue ocean market. With the vigorous development of China’s intelligent electric vehicle industry and the global catch-up of lidar enterprises, relevant upstream supporting component suppliers are expected to deeply benefit from the supply chain reconstruction opportunity of automotive electronics by virtue of their strong process control and cost control ability, closer to customers and flexible response.
Investment proposal and investment object
We are optimistic that lidar, as an indispensable sensor to realize high-level automatic driving, will benefit from the acceleration of high-level automatic driving and meet the demand for large-scale loading. We believe that the lidar industry is at an explosive inflection point. We suggest paying attention to enterprises with relevant technology precipitation in the middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain and close cooperation with automobile enterprises. It is recommended to pay attention to sunny optics, the leading enterprise of vehicle lens and module, the manufacturer of optical precision instruments and components Ningbo Yong Xin Optics Co.Ltd(603297) , the solution provider of precision optical components Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co.Ltd(002273) , the high-power semiconductor laser enterprise torch technology, the manufacturer of optical components and optical fiber devices Optowide Technologies Co.Ltd(688195) , the thermoelectric refrigeration technology enterprise Guangdong Fuxin Technology Co.Ltd(688662) , and the lidar motor manufacturer Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) .
Risk tips
The penetration rate of automatic driving is lower than expected; The development of lidar technology is not as expected; The cost of lidar decreased less than expected.
