Core view
What to watch this week
In December, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached a new high, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 19.1%;
In December, the loading capacity of power battery was 26.2gwh, and lithium iron phosphate continued to exceed lithium ternary;
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) sign a strategic cooperation agreement with Weilai;
LG energy fully guarantees the expansion of production capacity and deeply distributes the field of upstream raw materials;
Rhine metal layout transformation strategy and set up a joint venture with polycharge;
Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (688005. SZ): 200 million won 49% equity of lithium salt enterprises, overweight salt lake to extract lithium;
Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) (002074. SZ): won the bid for lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage project;
Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co.Ltd(002805) (002805. SZ): raise 940 million yuan to expand the production of 50000 tons of lithium iron phosphate materials
Lithium battery material price
Cobalt products: electrolytic cobalt (498500 yuan / ton, 0.91%); Cobalt trioxide (394000 yuan / ton, 0.00%); Cobalt sulfate (103000 yuan / ton, 0.98%);
Lithium products: metal lithium (1.605 million yuan / ton, 3.88%); Lithium carbonate (321000 yuan / ton, 6.29%), lithium hydroxide (264000 yuan / ton, 8.66%);
Nickel products: electrolytic nickel (166000 yuan / ton, 7.91%), nickel sulfate (39000 yuan / ton, 1.95%);
Midstream material: ternary positive electrode (523 power type: 263000 yuan / ton, 0.00%; 622 single crystal type: 271000 yuan / ton, 1.88%; 811 single crystal type: 293000 yuan / ton, 1.74%); Lithium iron phosphate (114000 yuan / ton, 6.54%); Negative electrode (artificial graphite (310-320mah / g) 36000 yuan / ton, 0%; Artificial graphite (330-340mah / g) 56000 yuan / ton, 0%; Artificial graphite (340-360mah / g) 73000 yuan / ton, 0%); Diaphragm (7 + 2) μ M coating: 2.6 yuan / flat, 0.00%; 9+3 μ M coating 2.2 yuan / flat, 0.00%); Electrolyte (iron lithium type 110000 yuan / ton, 0%; ternary type 113000 yuan / ton, 0%; lithium hexafluorophosphate 59000 yuan / ton, 0%)
Investment proposal and investment object
In December, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached a new high, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 19.1%; The loading capacity of power battery is 26.2gwh, and lithium iron phosphate continues to exceed lithium ternary. In December, the shortage of automotive chips gradually eased, and the market development has shifted from policy driven to market driven new development stage, showing a development situation of double improvement of market scale and development quality. It is expected that the automotive market will continue to show a steady and good development trend in 2022. 2021 is the year with the best profit of midstream materials, and the prices of all links have been raised to varying degrees. The increase in prices will inevitably lead to an increase in the speed of production capacity. Considering the production expansion plan and speed of each link, the barrel effect is still effective. The tight production capacity and slow technological iteration in some links may be interpreted as the bottleneck of the production of lithium batteries or new energy vehicles, and become a potential sector with both volume and price. We expect that 2022 diaphragm and solvent may become a short board in the industry chain.
With the launch of new production capacity, it is expected that the price of core materials will stabilize or even fall, and the overall cost of battery terminal will decline in the future, while the rising trend of downstream price is very certain. With the increase of battery gross profit margin and the decrease of cost rate caused by superposition of scale effect, the battery link ushers in a profit inflection point.
To sum up, it is recommended to pay attention to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750, not rated); Midstream materials focus on diaphragm links Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812, not rated), Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) (300568, not rated), Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic Co.Ltd(002108) (002108, bought); Solvent link Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) (603026, buy), it is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) (300037, not rated), Liao Ning Oxiranchem Inc(300082) (300082, not rated); Ternary materials pay attention to Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (603799, buy) as the core subject of integrated layout, and it is recommended to pay attention to Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (300073, not rated).
Risk tips
Subsidies have declined, and the sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; Upstream raw material price fluctuation risk.
