One week resumption:
This week, power equipment and new energy (CITIC level I) rose 1.22%, 3.21 percentage points ahead of the market. In terms of overall market performance, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.63%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 1.98%, and the gem index rose 0.73%. Among the power equipment sub sectors, electrical equipment rose 0.32%, wind power fell 3.84% and photovoltaic fell 0.41%. In addition, new energy vehicles (CSI) rose 3.62%, leading the market by 5.60 percentage points; New energy power generation operation (Yangtze River) fell 3.12%, 1.14 percentage points behind the market.
This week, SW utilities (level I) fell 1.57%, outperforming the market by 0.41 percentage points. Among the utilities sub sectors, SW power fell 1.53% and SW gas fell 1.89%.
Investment perspective:
Key targets:
Recommended Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) ; Follow Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) .
PV:
1. The installed capacity of 2021q4 PV exceeded expectations: by the end of November 2021, 34.83gw of grid connected installed capacity had been added nationwide. According to the statistics of Zhihui PV, the grid connected capacity in December will exceed 25gw, including household PV above 4gw, distributed PV above 2gw and ground power station above 18gw. According to this calculation, the newly added grid connected installed capacity in 2021 will reach 60GW, Far exceeding the market and CPIA expectations (it is predicted in November 2021 that 45 ~ 55gw will be newly installed in 2021).
2. Policies continue to promote the improvement of photovoltaic demand: on December 30, 2021, SASAC issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of central enterprises and doing a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization, proposing that the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation by central enterprises will account for more than 50% by 2025, which will enable Huaneng Group, Huadian Group National energy group and other power generation groups with a relatively high proportion of thermal power accelerate the construction of new energy; On December 31, 2021, the national development and Reform Commission said that the national development and Reform Commission and the national energy administration took the lead in establishing a work promotion mechanism, implementing monthly scheduling, and guiding local energy authorities and relevant central enterprises to promote the construction of base projects in strict accordance with the requirements; About 75gw of the first batch of large-scale scenery base projects have been started, and the remaining projects (about 22gw) will be started in 2022q1. Photovoltaic demand will be effectively guaranteed in 2022.
3. In terms of investment: (1) the demand for photovoltaic 2021q4 exceeds the expectation, and the policy continues to support the development of new energy. After the downward price of the industrial chain, 2022q1 is “not light in the off-season”, the demand boom is expected to improve strongly, promote the large-scale volume of the industrial chain, and focus on recommending the leaders Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) with poor expectations in the market. (2) The price of some auxiliary materials may rise in 2022q1 due to the release of demand, the price rise of raw materials, structural supply and demand shortage and other factors. It is recommended to focus on Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) and pay attention to Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) . (3) In the process of module price decline, overseas demand and distributed photovoltaic demand will be released first. It is recommended that the whole county promote distributed leading Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) .
