Focus this week: Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co.Ltd(300567) , Sensong international, Harbin Electric Corporation Jiamusi Electric Machine Co.Ltd(000922) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) , Wpg (Shanghai) Smart Water Public Co.Ltd(603956)
Core view of this week: since the beginning of the year, the pressure for steady growth has increased, and the intensity of infrastructure investment is expected to increase. We believe that the construction of relatively weak public utilities is expected to become a hot spot for investment, including "double carbon" related nuclear energy, hydrogen energy, water network and intelligent water construction, oil and gas pipeline network construction, which will bring equipment investment demand.
Last week's focus: Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co.Ltd(300567) , Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co.Ltd(002438) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) , First Tractor Company Limited(601038) . As of January 14, 2022, the weekly range rose or fell by - 5.60%, and the Shenwan index of mechanical equipment rose or fell by - 2.60% in the same period, underperforming the equipment index year-on-year. Since the beginning of the portfolio, the cumulative yield has been -9.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by -6.42pct and the Shenwan machinery index by -7.83pct.
What does the lithium battery production process and corresponding core equipment include? Lithium battery production is mainly divided into three major steps: electrode production, cell assembly and cell activation. Among them, the processes are closely linked: 1) the coating process in the pole chip manufacturing link is the core, and the corresponding equipment is the coating machine (the corresponding investment of a single GW is 20 million); 2) The core of cell assembly is lamination and winding process, corresponding to lamination machine and winding machine (the investment of single GW is < 300 billion and 180 billion respectively). At present, lamination is mainly used in soft pack batteries. Due to its advantages in battery energy density and other aspects, the application of lamination process in square shell batteries may become a trend; 3) The chemical composition and capacity separation process activated by the cell is the core and corresponds to the chemical composition capacity cabinet (square shell / cylinder: the corresponding investment of single GW is 8-15 million). The value of lithium battery equipment for the whole line is about 180 million / GW, accounting for 4:3:3 respectively. However, due to the influence of various factors such as equipment source (distinguishing between domestic and imported) and equipment process (different technical paths and equipment functions), the proportion of investment in the whole lithium battery line and the value of each link may also be different.
What is the supply and demand pattern of China's lithium battery equipment market?
Method 1: by combing the capacity planning and calculation of China's battery plants, it is estimated that the new battery capacity of batteries from 2021 to 2025 will be 144 / 227 / 245 / 340 / 474gwh respectively. Assuming that the corresponding equipment order investment of single GWH is 180 million, the corresponding new equipment investment will be 259 / 409 / 443 / 613 / 85.2 billion yuan respectively. According to our incomplete statistics, the newly signed lithium battery equipment in 2021 is only 35.3 billion yuan. Even considering some projects to be confirmed as winning the bid, we expect that the equipment supply has not fully matched the battery capacity expansion demand in 2022.
Method 2: infer the demand for lithium battery equipment through the shipment of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles and energy storage / 3C: considering the impact of factors such as the less than expected expansion of battery capacity, we take the sales volume of new energy vehicles as the starting point. It is estimated that the actual purchase amount of lithium battery equipment from 2021 to 2025 will be 293 / 384 / 421 / 551 / 847 billion yuan, and there is still a gap in equipment capacity. In conclusion, we believe that under the background of rapid release of new energy demand, the lithium battery equipment industry will continue to maintain a high boom.
The construction on site is getting better. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities related to construction machinery.
According to China Securities News, just after new year's day, major projects around the country started in batches. At present, the total investment of major projects has exceeded 3 trillion yuan. At the end of 2021, the Ministry of Finance issued to all localities in advance the new special debt limit of 1.46 trillion yuan in 2022, superimposing the centralized issuance of about 1.4 trillion yuan of special bonds in the fourth quarter of 2021. It is expected that China's infrastructure investment will be significantly large in the first quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities related to construction machinery.
Risk tip: the capacity expansion of lithium battery plant is less than expected; Risks of changes in national policies on new energy vehicles; Intensified market competition; Risk of data measurement error; The downstream construction was not as expected.
