Market review last week (2022.1.10-2022.1.14): the Shanghai index fluctuated in the first four days of last week, opened low on Friday, the Shenzhen index fluctuated in the first three days and went down in the next two days. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.63% to close at 3521.26. The CSI 300 fell 1.98% last week to close at 4726.73. The gem rose 0.73% last week to close at 3119.41. Last week, two of the sub sectors of social services and tourism retail rose from high to low: hotel catering (+ 3.56%), tourism and scenic spots (0.24%), professional services (- 0.86%), tourism retail (- 3.51%) and Education (- 3.58%). Last week, six of Shenwan (2021) 31 primary industries rose, and the top five rose in medicine and biology, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, automobile and comprehensive, of which the social service sector fell 0.84%, ranking 10th among Shenwan's 31 industries. The social service industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.14 PCTs. Under the epidemic, China tax exemption shows performance toughness, and the tax exemption on outlying islands has considerable sales throughout the year; Revise the service quality requirements of star hotels to integrate the opinions of consumers and the industry; There are opportunities for tourism development along the Silk Road, and Hainan focuses on building provincial tourism resorts.
Main points:
Under the epidemic, China tax exemption maintained performance resilience, and the annual increment of tax exemption on outlying islands was considerable: China tax exemption issued a performance pre increase announcement, and it is expected to realize a net profit of about 9.4-10.1 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 54% - 66%. According to the data of Haikou customs, the amount of duty-free shopping on Hainan outlying islands in 2021 was 49.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 80%. The number of shoppers, the number of shopping pieces and the per capita shopping amount were + 49.8%, + 107% and + 20.2% year-on-year respectively. In Q4 of 2021, the epidemic disturbance increased compared with the rest of the quarters. Under the pressure of the external environment, China free promoted the performance growth by strengthening the digital layout and expanding brand categories. The epidemic spread is a temporary factor. In addition, the tax exemption momentum in Hainan is improving, and the company's future performance is still expected to increase.
Revise the service quality requirements for star hotels and listen to the opinions of consumers and the industry: on January 10, Beijing culture and Tourism Bureau issued the draft of service quality requirements for star hotels, which stipulates the basic service requirements, post service requirements, facility maintenance requirements, health requirements, safety requirements and complaint handling requirements for star hotels. The wide solicitation of opinions is expected to make the requirements more meet the needs, and the hotel will change from single scale competition to comprehensive competition, which is of positive significance to the development of the hotel.
There are new opportunities for tourism development along the silk road. Hainan focuses on Building Provincial Tourism Resorts: Recently, the Silk Road online tourism asset index report shows that the secret scenery and profound cultural heritage along the silk road have become the first choice for young people to travel. On the 13th, Hainan tourism and culture system proposed to focus on building 1-2 provincial tourist resorts, newly evaluated 5-8 A-level tourist attractions and 15-20 coconut level rural tourist spots. Hainan's influence and boutique tourism development are expected to continue to improve.
Investment suggestions:
Under the epidemic, China tax exemption showed performance toughness, and the annual sales growth of tax exemption on outlying islands was considerable. Under the pressure of the external environment, China tax exemption promotes performance growth through positive countermeasures such as digital layout and broadening brand categories. In addition, Hainan tax exemption has a good momentum, and the company has high-quality growth in the medium and long term. The service quality requirements for star hotels was revised to integrate the opinions of consumers and the industry. There are new opportunities for tourism development along the Silk Road, and Hainan focuses on building a provincial tourism resort. Continue to recommend China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) tax-free leading enterprises, and Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Lijiang tourism, Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) and other hotels, scenic spots and tourism comprehensive service targets in the logic of cultural and tourism recovery; It is suggested to pay attention to enterprises that are good for the release of ice and snow tourism demand.
Risk tips:
The epidemic situation of covid-19 virus is repeated, the industry recovery is less than expected, and the implementation and implementation of policies are less than expected.
