Industry core view:
From January 10, 2022 to January 16, 2022: the new power industry rose by 2.13% this week, and the CSI 300 rose by - 1.98% in the same period, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.11pct. It ranks second among Shenwan's 31 industry sectors.
Key investment points:
New energy vehicles: according to the data released by the Ministry of industry and information technology, according to the sales data of new energy vehicles in 2021, the annual sales volume was 3.521 million, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years; On January 11, the Federation of passenger cars released the national passenger car market analysis report in December 2021. The Council said that the new energy subsidy policy in 2022 was a major positive. According to the newly released policy, the framework and threshold requirements of the current technical index system of purchase subsidy will remain unchanged in 2022, and the subsidy scale will be changed from the original expected 2 million vehicles to no upper limit, and the subsidy will run through the whole year of 2022. Although the subsidy is reduced after the implementation of the new deal, the number of subsidies has increased, which will stimulate car enterprises to increase the output of new energy vehicles. "With the doubling of the scale of the new energy industry chain and the improvement of the ability to reduce costs, the increment of new energy vehicles at the end of 2022 is very strong," the Federation said. At the same time, it predicts that the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 6 million in 2022, with a penetration rate of about 22%. We believe that in the environment of declining subsidies, the market will be further divided, and the price advantage of low-end models equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries will become more and more significant in the future. We are optimistic about the further improvement of the penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2022, and we suggest paying attention to the positive targets of relevant batteries. It is recommended to focus on Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750), Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (300073), and Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (603659).
New energy power generation: in terms of photovoltaic, since January, the operating rate of first-line silicon wafer enterprises has gradually increased to 60% - 70%, but the release of production expansion is less than expected. At present, the silicon materials needed by silicon wafer enterprises to increase the operating rate basically come from the production capacity and normal circulation inventory of existing enterprises. We believe that in view of the positive downstream demand in the short term, the supply of silicon material is less than expected, and the factors such as hoarding during the Spring Festival are superimposed, it is expected that the price of silicon material will continue to rise steadily before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to focus on Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (600438), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (002459), Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) (601865) and Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) (601908). In terms of wind power, the bidding price of wind turbine continued to be low this week, Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) and prospective energy won the bid of Huazhong Guanghe 297mw project at the price of 2077 yuan / kW and 1860 yuan / kW respectively, of which the unit capacity of Mingyang winning project is more than 4MW and the unit capacity of prospective winning project is 6.25mw. The continuous decline of wind turbine price will promote the release of demand. Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) (002202), Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) (601615), and Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) (688186) are recommended.
Hydrogen energy: on January 13, 2022, China Automobile Association released the economic operation of automobile industry in 2021. The data show that in December, 627 and 486 fuel cell vehicles were produced and sold respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times and 1.1 times respectively; So far, according to the data of Polaris hydrogen energy network, 1777 and 1586 fuel cell vehicles were produced and sold in China's fuel cell vehicle market in 2021. The first half of the year was mainly affected by the epidemic situation and policies. The production and sales volume of fuel cell vehicles was officially released in the first half of the year. The report pointed out that Beijing should actively build a closer coordinated development pattern of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, promote the construction of fuel cell vehicle demonstration cities and promote the co construction and sharing of public services in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. We believe that in terms of hydrogen energy and fuel cells, the policy drive is mainly long-term, characterized by urban agglomeration driving the development of industrial clusters, which will continue to benefit hydrogen energy conversion and downstream applications in the future. It is recommended to focus on Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) (688339), Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) (000338), and Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (000723).
Risk factors: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Safety risks of new energy vehicles; Affected by the epidemic, the opening of photovoltaic market was less than expected; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; The approval and commencement of offshore wind power are not as expected; The wind power project has been approved and the grid connection is not as expected; The growth of PV installed capacity was lower than expected; Power grid investment is less than expected.
