Industry core view:
Last week, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 1.42%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.21 percentage points. From the social zero data released by the Bureau of statistics, the social zero in December was + 1.7% year-on-year. Affected by the sporadic outbreak of the epidemic in China, the growth rate was 2.2 PCT lower than that in November. We believe that in the short term, the winter epidemic will counterattack, and the consumer market will face uncertainty. However, with the more accurate and effective epidemic prevention and control and the gradual implementation of the “stable growth” economic policy, China’s consumption is expected to return to a stable growth trend in the future. Suggestions: ① medical beauty: the potential space on the demand side is broad, the supervision on the supply side is stricter, the upstream profitability is strong, and the competition pattern is good. Focus on the investment opportunities brought by the rapid expansion of leading enterprises through technological progress, category expansion, channel sinking and so on; ② Cosmetics: the demand for cosmetics is strong in the face value economy. Recently, a number of cosmetics related laws and regulations have been issued, and the industry is facing a reshuffle, which will benefit the leading companies of compliant cosmetics; ③ Gold jewelry: the epidemic situation accelerates the industry integration, channel reform and the improvement of multi scene penetration, which is good for the leading enterprises of gold jewelry; ④ Mother and baby: since the implementation of the three child policy, governments across the country have issued a number of birth incentives. It is expected that the birth rate is expected to boost in the future with the implementation of more relevant supporting measures and policies. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of mother and baby racing track in advance.
Key investment points:
Market review: last week (January 10-january 16), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.63%, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 1.42%, and the retail trade index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.21 percentage points, ranking 16th in the rise and fall of Shenwan 31 primary industry indexes. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 3.26%, the Shenwan retail trade index has fallen by 3.78%, and the retail trade index has lost 0.52% of the Shanghai Composite Index, ranking 22nd among the 31 primary sub industries of Shenwan.
Industry data: ① social zero data: in December 2021, China’s total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by + 1.7% year-on-year, with an average of + 3.1% in two years, 2.2 PCT lower than the growth rate in November 2021. Among the sub categories, the growth rate of retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics of units above the quota fell, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.20% and + 2.50% respectively. ② Raw material price data: last week, gold rose $20.59 to $1817.52/oz, and silver rose $0.60 to $22.95/oz. ③ E-commerce data: in December 2021, the turnover of Taoxi platform cosmetics (including beauty and skin care and color makeup) was 17.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 24%, and the turnover of jewelry was 8.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 21%. In terms of beauty makeup, the overall performance of Chinese and foreign brands was low in December, Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) youzilai / Caitang, Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603983) Lianhuo, Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) Winona performed better; In terms of jewelry, Gmv of most brands declined in varying degrees, China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) and Cartier performed better.
Important announcements of listed companies: Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) announce the progress of reducing holdings and obtain government subsidies; Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) received government subsidies; Acquisition of Yisi health subsidiary; Syoung Group Co.Ltd(300740) forecast performance; Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) the sales restriction is lifted; Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) share repurchase; Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) shareholders increase their holdings; Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) equity incentive.
Important events in the industry: ① “return of high praise” is prohibited; ② The popular science toothpaste of the State Food and drug administration cannot claim to have medical effect; ③ Celebrate the new year on the spot and send money! More clearly.
Risk factors: the risk of resurgence of epidemic, less than expected recovery of consumption and intensified industry competition.
