The recent sector fluctuations and obvious game are mainly due to: (1) strong expectation and weak reality: stabilizing the economy has become the consensus of the market, but the uncertain economic stimulus policy has led to the unclear and unpredictable main line driving the growth of the industry. Recently, the epidemic situation has been repeated and the feedback channels, especially the dealers in the epidemic area, are more cautious, and the market began to be pessimistic about the demand. (2) There is little space before adjustment: the market is worried that the monetary environment is tighter than the margin of the previous two years, and the industry valuation is difficult to expand. The sector has experienced considerable growth since October, and some individual stocks have reached new highs.
From the fundamentals, valuation and capital side, Baijiu shares already have a high winning rate. (1) Fundamentals: the contract liabilities are high and there are sufficient reservoirs. According to the channel research feedback, the dealers in some regions have more money and less goods, and have a strong willingness to pay. The current consumption scenario is less affected than everyone thought. In addition, on January 16, 2022, the national development and Reform Commission issued ten measures to promote consumption, emphasizing the need to stabilize and expand consumption under the condition of normalization of epidemic prevention and control, implement local main responsibilities, prevent simplification, “one size fits all” and “layer by layer” prevention and control, and minimize the impact on people’s production and life, In low-risk areas, we should ensure the rational short-distance flow and normal consumption activities of urban and rural residents in the region. According to Baidu migration big data, the Spring Festival transportation time this year is significantly earlier than last year, and the flow of people is large. We believe that the epidemic outbreak and policy strict control in some areas are mainly based on the special time point of the Spring Festival transportation peak. Later, with the decline of population flow, the epidemic prevention policy may be more flexible and scientific, which will reduce the impact on the consumption scene. (2) Valuation: after adjustment, the pessimistic expectation of the impact of the epidemic has been basically fulfilled, and the valuation advantages of the sector have been highlighted. According to Wande’s unanimous prediction, the current Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) corresponds to less than 30 times of PE in 2022, the liquor in some regions has dropped to about 20 times, and the valuations of Maotai, Laojiao, Fenjiu and sub high-end have fallen to a lower level. It is rare in history that the payment collection is good and the stock price is weak, At present, the greater risk lies in trampling; (3) capital side: whether it is better economy, stronger consumption or economic weakness – stimulus recovery, the same path will lead to consumption, and Baijiu will eventually rise. We are optimistic about the economy, mainly because we can feel that governments at all levels have a clear mission for economic development during market research, which can stimulate more vitality from the inside out.
The inflection point of the food sector is reduced to and the performance flexibility is released: on the one hand, the promotion fee for stabilizing the economy and expanding domestic demand in 2022. From the perspective of structure, different from the water release in the early stage, the follow-up or more inclined to basic employment, so that “migrant workers can work and Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) dare to consume and consume”; On the other hand, under the background of the industrial price increase of mass products, it has little impact on the competition pattern, and after most enterprises go to the channel inventory in the early stage, the channel inventory gradually returns to a benign state, superimposed with the weak recovery of demand, and the resistance of the price increase to the terminal is small. It is suggested to follow the implementation of price increase and grasp the release of performance flexibility.
Core recommendation: for the food and beverage industry as a whole, we believe that the demand will recover next year, the profit of popular products will be highly flexible, and the excess return comes from grasping the rhythm of performance release. The Baijiu is still the first choice, and the price will be released after landing, and the profit will be released. Baijiu sector: the current regional Baijiu α Opportunities, mainly recommend Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , and Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) of the dark horse. High end Baijiu Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is currently expected to be low, waiting for the price to pick up the stock price, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) after the valuation callback has a high configuration value. Popular products: it is recommended to follow the implementation of price increase in the peak season of the Spring Festival and the rhythm of performance release. At present, it is recommended to focus on Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) with smooth price increase, Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Qingdao Richen Food Co.Ltd(603755) with high-quality targets in the catering supply chain, as well as the recovery of recommended demand and targets related to consumption upgrading, such as Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) . It is recommended to pay attention to Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) .
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic may be repeated; Demand recovery is not strong enough; Market game and even stampede are stronger than expected.
