Overall: this week, CSI 300 rose or fell by – 1.98%, 6 of the 31 industries in Shenwan level rose, the power equipment industry rose or fell by 2.13%, ranking second in Shenwan level industry, and the wind photovoltaic index rose or fell by – 2.09%.
Individual stocks: 19 stocks in the photovoltaic industry (component stocks of wind photovoltaic index) achieved positive returns, of which, Roshow Technoiogy Co.Ltd(002617) led the rise by 8.92% and Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) led the decline by – 12.57%.
Valuation: as of January 16, 2021, the PE (TTM) of photovoltaic industry (wind photovoltaic index) is 48.77, and the P / E ratio of electrical equipment industry (Shenwan level) is 52.06.
Price tracking
The price of the industrial chain was generally stable this week:
The price of monocrystalline silicon material remained stable;
The price of monocrystalline silicon remains stable and the price of polycrystalline silicon rises;
The price of single crystal cell remains stable and that of polycrystalline cell remains stable;
Component prices remained stable.
Industry dynamics
Ningxia’s 14th five year plan: build 14gw photovoltaic power and 4.5gw wind power
National Energy Administration: promote the repurchase of new energy supporting self built projects, and support coal and oil enterprises to build photovoltaic
Liaoning’s 14th five year plan: vigorously develop distributed photovoltaic construction
Investment advice
This week, due to the rapid increase in the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises, the release of silicon material expansion was less than expected, and the silicon material price remained stable. In view of the positive downstream demand in the short term, the silicon material supply was less than expected, and the factors such as hoarding in the Spring Festival, it is expected that the silicon material price will continue to rise steadily and slightly before the Spring Festival. According to the statistics of Zhihui photovoltaic, the installed capacity of household in China in December was about 5GW. In addition, the newly installed capacity of household from January to November announced by the National Energy Administration in the early stage was 16.49gw. The cumulative installed capacity of household photovoltaic in 2021 was about 21.5gw, a year-on-year increase of 112%. It is expected that in the future, with the continuous promotion of distributed photovoltaic in the whole county, the photovoltaic installation will be in the development mode of centralized and distributed two wheel promotion. Long term optimistic about the leader of vertical integrated components and the leading inverter enterprises with leading layout in the field of energy storage: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) .
Risk tips
The consumption of new energy is less than expected; The new installed capacity is less than expected; Price fluctuation risk of industrial chain; The implementation of the new energy plan on the 14th five year plan was not as expected.
