Event description:
According to the data released on January 17, in 2021, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 44082.3 billion yuan, an increase of 12.5% over the previous year, and the average growth rate in the two years was 3.9%.
Event comments:
In December, the social zero growth rate decreased month on month, and beverage, grain, oil and food maintained double-digit growth. In 2021, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 44082.3 billion yuan, an increase of 12.5% over the previous year, and the average growth rate in the two years was 3.9%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles reached 397037.7 billion yuan, an increase of 12.9%; Excluding price factors, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2021 increased by 10.7% over the previous year. It was greatly affected by the spread of the epidemic. In December, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 4126.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7% (the market expectation was 3.9%), a month on month decrease. 2) The catering revenue from January to December was 4689.5 billion yuan, an increase of 18.6%, of which the catering revenue in December was 484.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%. 3) In addition, beverages, grain, oil and food maintained double-digit growth. In December 2021, the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol reached 53.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%; In December, the total retail sales of beverages was 24.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%; In December, the total retail sales of grain, oil and food were 166.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%.
Baijiu after callback configuration value highlights. 2021 the first three quarters of the Baijiu Baijiu sector realized operating income of 230 billion 28 million yuan, up 19.30% over the same period, up 25.40% from the three quarter of 19 years ago, and realized net profit of 82 billion 400 million yuan, an increase of 19.09% over the same period, an increase of three% compared with the three quarter of 19 years ago. Net profit has increased significantly compared with the pre epidemic situation. The growth rate of high-end Baijiu is the most robust, and the second highest level liquor is the most prominent. Among them, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) revenue rose more than 100%, 134.20% and 104.54% respectively. Recently, Baijiu has been adjusted sharply, and the outflow of capital has been mainly due to the following: first, the market is worried about the consumption tax again; two, Moutai is expected to lose its price, and the three is the repeated consumption of the epidemic.
Online physical retail grew steadily, and online sales of food grew rapidly. In 2021, the national online retail sales reached 13088.4 billion yuan, an increase of 14.1% over the previous year. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods were 10804.2 billion yuan, an increase of 12.0%, accounting for 24.5% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods; Among the online retail sales of physical goods, food, clothing and consumer goods increased by 17.8%, 8.3% and 12.5% respectively. This shows that online sales of food products are growing rapidly. According to Ali channel data, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, sales and sales decreased year-on-year and month on month in December. In December Baijiu industry’s online sales, sales and average price were up -49.08%/-44.62% / -33.39%/-18.60% / -23.56%/-31.97% respectively.
Investment suggestions:
1) Baijiu boom continues upward. Hold tight the Baijiu line and look for two or three lines with high elasticity. We should pay attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and so on. 2) When popular products enter Q4, the high base effect gradually disappears, and the price increase alleviates the cost pressure. With the arrival of the peak season, the performance is expected to improve marginally. It is recommended to pay attention to Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) and so on.
Risk tips: macroeconomic risk, food safety risk, market style change risk.
