Data tracking of sales volume of new energy vehicles: production and sales volume maintained rapid growth in December; In mid December, the output of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was 518000, with a year-on-year increase of 120% and a month on month increase of 7%. By the end of December 2021, the cumulative output of new energy vehicles in 2021 reached 3.545 million, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 160%. In mid December, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was 531000, with a year-on-year increase of 114% and a month on month increase of 11%. By the end of December 2021, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2021 had reached 3521000, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 158%. The sales volume of pure electric passenger vehicles this month was 416000, with a year-on-year increase of 121% and a month on month increase of 16%. The cumulative sales volume in 2021 reached 2.734 million, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 174%. The sales volume of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles this month was 82000, with a year-on-year increase of 122% and a month-on-month decrease of 12%. The cumulative sales volume in 2021 was 600000, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 143%. According to the data of new energy vehicles in December, the sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles maintained a rapid growth.
Suggestion: the downstream electric vehicle sales volume is large, and the end view of the material remains the same. The price of lithium carbonate is still rising. Considering the impact of many manufacturers’ centralized shutdown and maintenance at the end of the year and the reduction of production, coupled with the full mood of goods preparation at the end of the year, and the explosion of downstream demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate, the price may remain high in the short term, but considering that the expansion of the new energy vehicle industry chain is still in the early stage, In the future, the cost reduction brought by the release of new production capacity and process improvement in the whole industry has not been fully reflected, and under the background of high landscape and smooth cost transmission in the downstream, we believe that the profitability of all links of the industrial chain will remain at a high level. Recently, the upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain have frequently signed cooperation agreements / purchase agreements. Under the background of continuous large-scale shipment of new energy vehicles and power batteries from downstream customers and rapid release of energy storage demand, the demand for guarantee and supply from downstream customers has increased, which is also a symbol of the high prosperity of the midstream battery material link in the future. We will continue to pay attention to the midstream link with good competition pattern, Optimistic about leading companies with cost advantages and performance advantages: 1) lithium battery manufacturers: the cost is expected to be transmitted to downstream host plants, and the inflection point of profit expectation is emerging; 2) Lithium copper foil race track: the supply gap is uncertain, and the leading enterprises are expected to benefit first; 3) Diaphragm track with good competition pattern and profitability: the gross profit margin of the head diaphragm enterprise has remained above 40% in recent three years. The head enterprise has full production and sales. Under the rigid production expansion cycle, the leader gives priority to the growth of the demand market. With the advancement of the overseas electrification process, the proportion of overseas customers of the enterprise is increased, which is expected to further improve the profitability; 4) Cathode & precursor: the growth rate of production and sales is considerable, the demand space for lithium iron phosphate is open in the future, the trend of high nickel of ternary cathode is clear, and leading enterprises actively expand production to seize the market share of high-end precursors; 5) Electrolyte race track: with the expansion of electrolyte production, the market is worried about its periodicity. The head company benefits from long-term association orders, the impact of price disturbance will be stabilized next year, and the cost and profit advantages will be further highlighted by adding new lithium salt business; 6) Lithium battery equipment: during the high-speed growth period of the 14th five year plan, the power battery started the second production expansion tide, superimposed with the rapid growth of overseas demand, the main lithium battery manufacturers accelerated their layout in Europe, and China’s leading lithium battery equipment enterprises will obtain new demand growth points.
Risk tips
The production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, and the policy is less than expected; New orders or delivery lower than expected; Risks of technology renewal; Risk of intensified market competition; Supply chain shortage risk, etc.
