Matters:
The National Bureau of statistics released the national real estate development investment and sales data from January to December 2021, of which the investment was 14.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%; New construction of 1.99 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%; Completed 1.01 billion square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 11.2%; The land acquisition area was 220 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15.5%; The land transaction price was 1.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%; The sales area of commercial housing was 1.79 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%; The sales volume was 18.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%; The capital in place of real estate enterprises was 20.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%.
Ping An View:
The investment in a single month decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% in 2022. Real estate investment increased by 4.4% year-on-year in 2021, and decreased by 13.9% year-on-year in a single month in December, with a decline of 9.6pct month on month. In the future, considering that the sales is still at the bottom stage, the capital pressure of real estate enterprises is still large and lack of confidence, it is expected that the stabilization of the investment side will lag behind the sales side, and maintain the annual strategic judgment. Under the neutral assumption, it is expected that the real estate investment will decrease by 2.6% year-on-year in 2022, with the growth rate from low to high.
The decline in new construction has expanded, and the completion has continued to grow. In 2021, new construction decreased by 11.4% year-on-year, 31.2% year-on-year in December, and the decline increased by 10.1pct month on month. In the future, considering that the capital pressure of real estate enterprises is still on, and the decline in land transactions in 2021h2 also affects the volume of goods available for construction in the future, the construction will probably slow down under the background of giving priority to insurance delivery to some insured real estate enterprises, so as to maintain the judgment that the new construction will decrease by 12% year-on-year in 2022. The completion in 2021 increased by 11.2% year-on-year and 1.9% year-on-year in December, continuing the positive growth. Under the background of the peak period of house delivery, the completion and repair speed will be faster than the commencement. With the gradual easing of the capital pressure of real estate enterprises, it is expected that the completion is expected to maintain a positive growth in 2022.
Sales continued to be depressed and policies continued to work. In 2021, the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing increased by 1.9% and 4.8% year-on-year respectively, and decreased by 15.6% and 17.8% year-on-year respectively in December. The decline expanded by 1.7pct and 1.5pct month on month, and the average sales price fell to 9512 yuan / m2 in December. It has been down month on month for five consecutive months, or it indicates that the effect of "price for quantity" of real estate enterprises is weakened. In January 2022, the national development and Reform Commission issued a document reiterating "supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers" and "promoting the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry through urban measures". Beihai and other cities relaxed the housing provident fund policy, and more supporting policies are expected to be implemented in the future, adding to the reduction of MLF and open market reverse repurchase interest rates on January 17, Or drive the mortgage interest rate to decline further. Considering the time required for policy transmission and confidence restoration of home buyers, it is expected that the short-term sales end is still in the bottom stage. It is expected that the sales area and amount will decrease by 9.5% and 8.1% respectively year-on-year in 2022, and the growth rate in a single month will be low before and high after.
The availability of funds slowed significantly and the demand for mortgages was insufficient. In 2021, the funds in place of real estate enterprises increased by 4.2% year-on-year, decreased by 19.3% year-on-year in December, and the decline rate expanded by 12.3pct month on month; Among them, the monthly decline of Chinese loans expanded to 31.6%, or due to the continuous downturn of new construction and the tightening of risk control of financial institutions, the supply and demand of development loans are weak at both ends; The monthly decline of deposits and advance receipts expanded to 25.9%; The monthly growth rate of personal mortgage loans changed from positive to negative (- 8.0%), which is confirmed by the year-on-year decrease of 83.4 billion yuan to 355.8 billion yuan in December, or mainly due to the significant decline in early sales and the weakening of mortgage demand.
Investment suggestion: in December, the national real estate investment fell sharply, and the decline in sales and new construction also expanded month on month. Under the background of capital side pressure, it still takes time to repair the investment confidence of real estate enterprises and residents' confidence in house purchase, the short-term industry fundamentals are still in the bottom stage; However, considering that since December 2021, the Politburo meeting, the central economic work conference, the central bank work conference and the national development and Reform Commission have all proposed to support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers and emphasize the virtuous cycle of the market, it is expected that more follow-up support measures are expected to be implemented and drive the industry's financing, sales and land purchase to gradually return to normal. In terms of investment suggestions, the short-term industry liquidity crisis has not been eliminated, the policy game space is still in place, the medium and long-term industry bottoms out and stabilizes, and the leading real estate enterprises will benefit more from the warmth of policies and stand out with comprehensive advantages. It is suggested to pay attention to Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) . The property management and business management sectors have broad industrial space, stable stock and strengthened independent development. Under the trend of increasing policy support and concentration, mainstream participants have great prospects. They are optimistic about property management leaders with outstanding comprehensive strength and continuous good operation, such as country garden service and poly property, as well as commercial operators occupying high-quality tracks in shopping centers and strong asset light output strength, Such as Xingsheng commerce, etc. From the perspective of industrial chain, it is suggested to pay attention to waterproof faucet Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) .
Risk tips: 1) if the new land storage scale of real estate enterprises is insufficient, it will have a negative impact on the supply, sales and investment of goods; 2) Large scale impairment risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
