Crude oil: prices rose across the board. Early in the week: the supply of some OPEC oil producing countries in Libya was interrupted, the situation in Kazakhstan was tense, and the market expected that the production capacity was limited or the supply was tight. The number of new non-agricultural employment in the United States in December was much lower than expected, which may have an impact on the policy of the United States reserve Federation. The supply and demand situation in the city was adjusted, and the crude oil price rose first and then fell. Late in the week: the US crude oil inventory fell for the seventh consecutive week, the market supply continued to tighten, some oil producing countries continued to face bottlenecks in increasing production, the oil supply was expected to tighten, the weakening US dollar supported the oil price, and the crude oil price continued to rise. At present, the weekly average price of Brent crude oil is 83.08 (+ 2.86) USD / barrel, and the weekly average price of WTI crude oil is 80.64 (+ 3.29) USD / barrel.
PX: the market continues to rise. PX market is still dominated by following the changes of crude oil market. Crude oil rises as a whole, and cost support continues to be strong. On the supply side, the overall supply was stable. A set of PX unit in Southwest China reduced the load in a narrow range due to raw material problems, and then recovered rapidly. On the demand side, the downstream PTA’s demand for raw materials remained on the high side, and only one set of 2.25 million T / a PTA unit in Northeast China was put into operation during the week. At present, the weekly average price of pxcfr China’s main port is 936.18 (+ 18.47) US dollars / ton, the price difference between PX and crude oil is 329.73 (- 2.44) US dollars / ton, the weekly average price difference between PX and naphtha is 150.28 (+ 4.74) US dollars / ton, and the operating rate is 70.20% (+ 0.00pct).
PTA: the market rose as a whole. Cost side support continued to be strong, but continued upward pressure. On the supply side, the market supply decreased slightly with the reduction of the Northeast unit, the circulation of spot goods was tight, the factories successively supplied spot goods, the spot tension was alleviated to a certain extent, and the basis structure remained good. On the demand side, most downstream factories maintain high start-up. Even if the holiday is approaching, the factory has not issued a large number of production reduction plans, but the demand in the terminal market is expected to decline near the Spring Festival. At present, the average weekly price of PTA spot is 5209.29 (+ 156.43) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is 97.71 (+ 48.36) yuan / ton, the operating rate is 70.50% (-0.30pct), and the social circulation inventory of PTA is 2315000 (+ 50000) tons.
MEG: market prices rose broadly. Crude oil prices rose in an all-round way, naphtha international prices fell slightly, coal prices rose slightly, and the cost side support was strong. On the supply side, the overall performance was good. A 800000 T / a unit in East China was shut down for maintenance for about a week, and the commissioning of a 400000 T / a new unit in Guanghui, Xinjiang was temporarily stopped. China’s output decreased slightly compared with last week. On the demand side, the demand has entered the seasonal off-season, the high inventory pressure of downstream polyester factories still exists, the overall performance of production and marketing is general, the commencement of terminal weaving industry is reduced, and the demand side performance is general. At present, the weekly average price of MEG spot is 5113.57 (+ 100.00) yuan / ton, the inventory in East China tank farm is 697000 (+ 12900) tons, and the operating rate is 56.50% (- 5.70pct).
Polyester filament: with the rise of oil price, going to the warehouse before the Spring Festival. At the beginning of the week, boosted by the cost side, many filament enterprises raised their quotations, the focus of market transactions moved upward, the downstream replenished goods before the year, and the production and marketing data were in large volume. In the middle of the week, the cost side support was strong, the cost pressure was prominent, the quotation of filament enterprises was raised, most downstream factories would enter holidays, the willingness to cover positions was not strong, and the production and sales fell sharply. Demand continues to be weak. Affected by demand, filament enterprises are more stable and wait-and-see, large factories have inventory pressure, and small enterprises have less inventory pressure. At present, the weekly average price of polyester filament is poy7702 14 (+ 326.43) yuan / ton, fdy7914 29 (+ 321.43) yuan / ton and dty9307 14 (+ 407.14) yuan / ton, the industry’s average profit per ton is POY + 221.38 (+ 104.80) yuan / ton, FDY + 96.69 (+ 101.48) yuan / ton and DTY + 423.81 (+ 158.37) yuan / ton respectively, and the inventory days of polyester filament enterprises are poy14.5 yuan / ton respectively 00 (- 2.50) days, fdy18 50 (- 1.00) days and dty20 50 (- 0.50) days, operating rate 85.50% (+ 5.20pct).
Weaving: continued weak performance. Downstream weaving has gradually entered the holiday mode. However, with the recent strong drive of the cost side, the downstream is guided by the rising sentiment of buying and purchases in advance. It is planned to produce the precursor after the Spring Festival. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream demand follow-up is limited and the performance continues to be weak. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 46.29% (- 4.70pct), and the grey fabric inventory is 33.80 (+ 0.00) days.
Polyester staple fiber: the market is stable and upward. The cost side continued to be positive, the average cost of polyester staple fiber increased, staple fiber enterprises increased their quotation, and the overall production and sales were light. On the supply side, Jiangsu Desai staple fiber plant was shut down for maintenance this week, Zhejiang times hollow staple fiber plant was shut down for maintenance, Yizheng Chemical fiber restarted some staple fiber plants, and the output increased slightly compared with last week. On the demand side, the shipment of polyester staple fiber this week is general. Downstream pure polyester yarn enterprises started to decline, and the inventory was relatively sufficient. The superimposed terminal demand continued to be weak. Yarn enterprises replenished moderately and just needed to buy. At present, the weekly average price of polyester staple fiber is 7321.90 (+ 232.38) yuan / ton, the industry average profit per ton is 134.94 (+ 42.38) yuan / ton, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber enterprises are -1.40 (+ 0.30) days, and the operating rate is 78.90% (- 1.30pct).
Polyester bottle chip: light downstream demand. On the supply side, the supply of some manufacturers of polyester bottle chips is still tight this week, the factory inventory has increased, and the inventory of most manufacturers is at the level of 1-2 days. On the demand side, there is no replenishment demand for large downstream soft drink manufacturers. The orders in the sheet industry are insufficient and the start-up is low. Superimposed, some small and medium-sized enterprises still have low-cost supply inventory, and the overall willingness to replenish is not strong. Approaching the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream replenishment quantity is limited, and the demand is more light. At present, the average spot price of PET bottles and chips is 8121.43 (+ 207.14) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is + 798.34 (+ 25.63) yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 86.80% (+ 0.80pct).
Xinda refining and chemical index: from September 4, 2017 to January 14, 2022, Xinda refining and chemical index increased by 178.37%, the oil processing industry index decreased by – 10.51%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 29.08%.
Relevant listed companies: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) (601233. SH), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) (600346. SH), Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) (000703. SZ), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) (002493. SZ), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) (603225. SH) and Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) (000301. SZ), etc.
Risk factors: (1) the large-scale refining unit is put into operation, and the production schedule is lower than expected. (2) The macro-economic growth rate declined seriously, resulting in a serious depression on the demand side of polyester. (3) Geopolitics and El Ni ñ o phenomenon greatly interfere with oil prices. (4) The production capacity of px-pta-pet industrial chain cannot be expected to change significantly.
