Market review: sector overall decline, Baijiu, beer, seasoning fermentation products decreased significantly
Last week, SW food and beverage fell 4.31%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 1.81%, and the sector fell as a whole. In the molecular industry, beer industry dropped 4.71% last week, the Baijiu industry dropped 4.61%, the food industry dropped 1.40%, the dairy industry fell 2.82%, the meat industry dropped 2.67%, and the seasoning and fermentation behavior dropped 5.50%.
Previous views: the epidemic is expected to stimulate mass consumer goods again, and the elastic targets need to be carefully selected from bottom to top
Baijiu: Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu: the recent high-end liquor continued to release good, continue to push the high-end liquor sector, high-end liquor or will continue to usher in catalysis, the key recommendation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . We propose that the liquor business has strong barriers in the Baijiu sector and high-end Baijiu, and the business model has the superiority. The performance stability in 2022 is still strong. At present, the market is expecting higher price increase and higher performance. We think that the high-end Baijiu has been shifting at present, and the following will be mainly based on stable operation, so as to improve the quality of its own business. In terms of the price increase, the core logic of the high-end sector is the price increase. We believe that the ability of high-end liquor companies to raise prices has been there all the time. But enterprises steadily increase their prices according to their own development rhythm, which is the way to long-term development. The excessive price increase in the short term or the overall operation quality of enterprises will be affected. Therefore, it is suggested to build high-end Baijiu with a long vision. It is a long-term promising high-quality core asset.
Beer: this week Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) issued an announcement on the pre increase of performance in 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 3.15 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 43%, and the performance is in line with the expectation. On the whole, the high-end rhythm of the company has been steadily promoted, the cost pressure has been relieved, and the continuous growth of operating profit has been realized. We believe that the next 2-3 years will usher in a beta market in the beer industry, which is mainly due to the release of profit elasticity brought by structural upgrading or accelerated superposition and the improvement of industry efficiency. The main line of the sector has clear logic, and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) is continuously recommended. It is recommended to pay active attention.
Catering industry chain: benefiting from the chain development of catering enterprises, the demand for cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and the cultivation of family consumption scenes by the epidemic, the prefabricated vegetable industry is in full swing; Among them, a series of high-quality sub tracks with broad prospects are coming to the fore, including the frozen baking track with low penetration, strong substitution and large development space, the fast-frozen hot pot material market in a steady growth period, and the b-end channel of prefabricated rice noodles with high standardization, low cost performance and large substitution space; It is recommended to pay attention to quick-frozen food faucet Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , frozen baking faucet Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , b-end service focused Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) and prefabricated dishes East China faucet Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) .
Soft drinks: overvalued varieties have entered the observation window period. They are optimistic about the logic of national large single products. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) . Overvalued varieties need to be supported by high growth. At present, whether it is pre mixed liquor or functional drinks, the market is worried that the competition pattern will deteriorate, resulting in a slowdown in growth. In the past 22 years, we are optimistic about the opportunity of performance stability brought by the large volume of national large single products, Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) the logic of national large single products continues to deduce. With the promotion of the company’s nationalization process, it is expected to maintain rapid growth in the next 22 years.
Dairy products: we expect the price of raw milk to enter a downward inflection point in 2022. From the fluctuation of raw milk price in 13-15 years, Yili’s net interest rate rose during the rise of raw milk price in 13-14 years, and Yili’s net interest rate was flat during the decline of raw milk price in 15 years. Therefore, we believe that the profitability of dairy leaders is more affected by cost investment than cost driven, Therefore, it is still uncertain whether the profit elasticity of dairy enterprises will appear next year.
Suggestions: Maotai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089)
Data tracking:
Baijiu: Moutai’s price slightly declined, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , national cellar price unchanged.
Beer industry: the output rebounded and increased, the price of imported barley increased, the price of glass increased, and the price of corrugated paper decreased slightly
Dairy industry: the average price of fresh milk decreased slightly, the price of whole milk powder decreased, the price of skimmed milk powder increased, the price of soybean meal increased slightly, and the import price of corn decreased slightly
Risk tip: the consumption scenario caused by the epidemic is limited, the terminal mobile sales do not meet expectations, the high-end process is blocked, food safety problems, etc.
