The penetration rate of automobile lightweight and integrated die casting will increase rapidly. Automobile lightweight and integrated die casting are important ways to reduce fuel consumption and improve endurance. It is expected that its penetration will continue to increase driven by the demand for electric vehicles. Lightweight, on the premise of ensuring the strength and safety performance of the vehicle, reducing the curb weight of the vehicle and improving the endurance of the vehicle, has become an important technical direction of major vehicle and parts enterprises. On the basis of lightweight, Tesla uses integrated die-casting technology in the rear underbody of modely, leading innovation in manufacturing process and material.
Automobile lightweight and integrated die casting main products and incremental products. Automobile lightweight products mainly include: chassis and body lightweight. The chassis accounts for 27% of the vehicle weight and carries 70% of the vehicle weight. The lightweight chassis helps to reduce the unsprung weight and improve the acceleration performance, handling performance and comfort of the vehicle. It is expected that aluminum alloy components will accelerate their penetration in the chassis field. Automobile body is the field with the greatest potential for lightweight. Thermoforming steel and lightweight process are the mainstream approaches. Chinese parts companies have mature thermoforming technology capabilities. The lightweight of three electric system of new energy vehicles is one of the keys to improve the endurance. The main products of the three electricity system include battery box shell, motor, electronic control system shell and hybrid vehicle gearbox shell, Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Jiangsu Rongtai Industry Co.Ltd(605133) and other layout related products. With the increase of the penetration of new energy vehicles, the integrated die casting of the three electricity system is expected to open a new incremental space for parts manufacturers.
Industry market space and characteristics. According to China’s passenger car output, aluminum consumption per passenger car, the proportion of aluminum alloy die castings in automotive aluminum consumption and the sales price of automotive aluminum alloy parts, it is expected that the market space of aluminum alloy die castings for passenger cars in China will reach about 163.714 billion yuan in 2025, and the compound growth rate of market space will be about 11.2% from 2020 to 2025. Die casting industry is a heavy asset industry, and its profitability has certain cyclical characteristics. In the early stage of project development, land, equipment and plants need to be invested, capital expenditure increases, depreciation of fixed assets increases in the process of project construction and other factors drag down profitability. With the completion of the project and the gradual release of new capacity, capital expenditure and depreciation and amortization decrease, capacity utilization rate and profitability increase. Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) and Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) have also been operated over the years. After the construction of the expansion project is completed, new customers are expanded and new orders are obtained, the capacity utilization rate is improved, and the gross profit margin is greatly improved.
Analysis of industry barriers and competition pattern. There are entry barriers such as qualification and customer certification barriers, technical barriers, capital and scale barriers in the automotive precision die casting industry, and new entrants will face greater obstacles. Die casting suppliers with foreign or joint venture brands have a large scale and have advantages in capital, technology and production scale. China’s own brand lightweight die casting suppliers can be divided into two categories: one is subordinate to the downstream vehicle group, and the other is an independent lightweight die casting supplier. Several head die casting enterprises with high operating income are George Fischer and Nemak, with an income of more than 25 billion yuan in 2019. The income scale of most independent die casting enterprises in China is less than 3 billion yuan. With the capacity expansion of independent suppliers, through the cost performance advantage, more orders from traditional automobile enterprises and new automobile enterprises are obtained, which is expected to gradually narrow the gap with foreign die-casting enterprises and improve market share.
Investment proposal and investment object
From the perspective of investment strategy, with the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the scale of automobile lightweight and integrated die castings will continue to expand, and the companies that layout lightweight and integrated die castings will benefit. In the stage of capacity release, the improvement of capacity utilization will promote the significant improvement of profitability and the rapid growth of profitability. It is suggested to pay attention to: Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Jiangsu Bojun Industrial Technology Co.Ltd(300926) .
Risk tips
The macroeconomic downturn affected automobile demand, chip supply was lower than expected, and raw material prices rose more than expected. Investment proposal and investment object
