In December 2021, the demand of China’s three major airlines rebounded month on month. In December 21, Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines ask decreased by 33.3%, 20.7% and 32.0% respectively compared with the same period of the previous year, increased by 30.8%, 11.6% and 25.1% respectively compared with the previous month, and decreased by 58.1%, 50.3% and 48.2% respectively compared with the same period of 2019; The passenger volume decreased by 37.2%, 32.0% and 38.4% respectively year-on-year, and increased by 38.7%, 11.9% and 23.9% respectively month on month, down 55.1%, 54.6% and 49.7% respectively compared with the same period in 2019; The occupancy rates were 63.5%, 59.0% and 64.9% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.1, 9.3 and 5.6pct respectively, and a month-on-month increase of 4.2, 0.7 and 1.7pct respectively. In terms of structure, the demand of Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines for Chinese routes rebounded month on month. In December 2021, the passenger volume of Chinese routes increased by 37.7%, 11.8% and 23.9% month on month respectively; Based on the same period in 2019, the passenger volume of Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines in China decreased by 45.3%, 46.5% and 40.8% respectively in December 2021.
Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) the passenger volume of Chinese routes decreased month on month in December 21. Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) in December of 21, ask decreased by 22.2% year-on-year, of which ask of Chinese routes decreased by 21.7% year-on-year and increased by 1.0% month on month; The passenger volume decreased by 33.5% year-on-year, of which the passenger volume of Chinese routes decreased by 33.6% year-on-year and 2.4% month on month. Based on the same period of 19 years, the ask of the company decreased by 27.3% in December of 21 years, of which the ask of Chinese routes decreased by 10.8%; In December, the passenger volume decreased by 35.3%, of which the passenger volume of Chinese routes decreased by 26.2%.
Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) in December of 21, the passenger volume of China’s routes rebounded month on month. Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) in December of 21, ask decreased by 21.6% year-on-year, of which ask of Chinese routes decreased by 21.5% year-on-year and increased by 10.1% month on month; The passenger volume decreased by 27.5% year-on-year, of which the passenger volume of Chinese routes decreased by 27.4% year-on-year and increased by 5.1% month on month. Based on the same period of 19 years, ask of the company decreased by 22.8% in December of 21 years, of which ask of Chinese routes increased by 30.2%; In December, the passenger volume decreased by 27.3%, of which the passenger volume of Chinese routes increased by 5.5%.
The passenger throughput of first tier airports and Chinese routes rose and fell month on month. In December 2021, the passenger throughput of capital airport, Pudong Airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) and Bao’an airport decreased by 75.3%, 75.3%, 60.8% and 36.8% respectively compared with the same period of 19 years. Among them, the passenger throughput of Chinese routes decreased by 67.3%, 54.8%, 48.2% and 28.2% respectively compared with the same period of 19 years, with a month on month change of + 69.7%, – 26.8%, – 14.0% and + 12.0% respectively.
Affected by the epidemic, there is still a large gap between the scale of civil aviation production and transportation in 21 years and 19 years. According to the statistics of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, in 2021, the total transportation turnover, passenger transport volume and cargo and mail transport volume of the whole industry increased by 7.3%, 5.5% and 8.2% respectively year-on-year, equivalent to 66.3%, 66.7% and 97.2% respectively in the same period of 19 years. In 2022, the whole industry will strive to complete the total transportation turnover of 104 billion ton kilometers, 570 million passenger trips and 7.8 million tons of cargo and mail transportation, which will generally return to the level of about 85% before the epidemic; The normal flight rate is stable above 80%; The average normal release rate and departure flight rate of airports above ten million level shall strive to reach 85%; Under the condition that the epidemic situation does not fluctuate repeatedly, we will strive to turn losses and increase profits in the industry as a whole.
Investment suggestion: the epidemic situation outside China has been repeated, and the recovery of air passenger transport demand has been negatively impacted. We believe that the growth logic and location advantages of first-line airport companies and airlines have not changed substantially due to the epidemic situation; With the continuous advancement of covid-19 vaccine / treatment technology, the demand for air passenger transport will gradually recover, and the revaluation of relevant companies is a deterministic event. We maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry, recommend Air China Limited(601111) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , and pay attention to China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) and China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) .
Risk analysis: the duration of covid-19 epidemic exceeded market expectations; The sharp decline of macro economy leads to the decline of industry demand; Sino US trade frictions continue to ferment, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuates greatly; Crude oil prices rose sharply.
