Events
On January 17, the National Bureau of statistics released the social zero data for December 2021 and the whole year. In the whole year of 2021, the total amount of China’s social zero was 44.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.5%; The two-year average growth rate (CAGR from 2019 to 2021, the same below) is 3.9%; After deducting price factors, the total social zero in 2021 actually increased by 10.7% year-on-year. In December 2021, China’s total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 4.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%.
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In December, the online retail sales of physical goods were greatly affected by the rhythm of big promotion: according to Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) channels, in December 2021, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by + 1.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 5.5pct month on month; Offline sales increased by + 1.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.6pct month on month. We believe that the year-on-year growth rate of online channels in December slipped faster than that of the previous month, or it is related to the rhythm change greatly promoted by e-commerce platforms. In 2021, the double 12 activities of all platforms decreased significantly compared with 2020, which directly led to the slowdown of social zero growth rate (especially online growth) in December.
In terms of consumption types, retail sales of goods increased by 2.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 2.5pct month on month, which is related to the change in the rhythm of the great promotion; Catering revenue was – 2.2% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 0.5pct month on month, reflecting the impact of the epidemic on offline consumption to a certain extent.
By category: due to the change in the rhythm of the annual promotion, the year-on-year growth rate of most daily consumer goods decreased in December compared with the previous month.
Required consumption: in December 2021, the year-on-year consumption of grain, oil and food above the quota was + 11.3%, the year-on-year consumption of beverage was + 12.6%, and the year-on-year consumption of tobacco and alcohol was + 7.0%; Chinese and Western drugs + 9.4% year-on-year; Daily necessities + 18.8% year-on-year. Compared with November, the growth rate of daily necessities and drugs accelerated, while the growth rate of grain, oil and food, beverages, tobacco and alcohol, Chinese and Western medicine decreased.
Optional consumption: in December 2021, gold, silver and jewelry were – 0.2% year-on-year; Cosmetics + 2.5% year-on-year, clothing, shoes, hats, knitwear and textiles – 2.3% year-on-year; Communication equipment + 0.3% year-on-year. The overall performance of optional consumption is general, and these categories are more affected by the rhythm change.
Recovery: the overall social zero in 2021: the growth rate of consumption slows down as a whole, online is the main force of growth, and there is still room for further recovery offline. In 2021, China’s online sales of physical goods reached 10.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.0%, with an average growth rate of 13.8% in the two years; It is estimated that the total amount of offline social zero is 33.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.0%, and the average growth rate in the two years is 1.0%. Considering that the RPI in 2019 / 2020 is 1.4% / 1.6% respectively, it can be seen that the actual value of offline social zero in 2021 is still slightly lower than that in 2019. It is expected that offline consumption will further recover after the improvement of epidemic prevention control.
Investment suggestion: continue to be optimistic about the investment value of high-quality brand targets. In the environment of slowing overall consumption growth, brands may continue to differentiate. In this process, high-quality brands have the potential for sustainable growth. We have observed that some high-quality domestic brands show significant advantages in understanding the Internet e-commerce culture, insight into consumer demand and grasping the direction of product iteration and upgrading. We are optimistic that the rise of national brands will become the general trend of the development of China’s consumer industry in the future.
Risk tips: repeated epidemic, macroeconomic depression, intensified industry competition, etc
