Zhou viewpoint: the number of overseas covid-19 confirmed cases has soared rapidly, and China’s covid-19 kit will usher in the peak export period
The number of confirmed cases of overseas covid-19 soared rapidly. On January 14, 2022, the number of confirmed cases worldwide in a single day reached 3.12 million, about four times that of the same period last year. At present, European and American data show that Omicron variant has become the mainstream strain. The number of confirmed cases has surged, and there is a strong demand for covid-19 detection. The overseas one-day nucleic acid detection capacity can not fully meet the existing detection needs. Although there is a gap between the sensitivity of antigen family detection and nucleic acid detection, it has the advantages of fast and convenient, and can be used as an effective supplement to nucleic acid detection. We calculate that the purchase amount of rapid detection kits by the U.S. government is about 6.1 billion US dollars per month. China’s covid-19 kit will usher in the export peak, and relevant enterprises with export capacity such as nucleic acid reagent and antigen kit are expected to achieve performance explosion.
Market review: this week, the biomedical sector rebounded against the trend, rising 2.41%, ranking first in all SW primary industries. Since the beginning of this year, pharmaceutical biology has fallen by 1.62%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.7 percentage points, ranking 9th in all SW primary industries.
In terms of subdivided industries, except for chemical agents, the pharmaceutical and biological subdivided sectors rose this week, with chemical agents down 0.87%, and medical devices up the most, up 7.71%. Since this year, the performance of medical devices has been the best, up 2.76% year to date; Medical services was the weakest performing sub sector, down 8.74%. Medical services (- 8.74%) and chemical raw materials (- 3.09%) underperformed the pharmaceutical and biological (SW) industry index.
In terms of performance of individual stocks, the top five stocks that rose last week were: Sailong Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002898) (61.12%), Zhejiang Yatai Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002370) (60.90%), Nanjing Hicin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300584) (58.08%), Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) (53.07%) and Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) (50.23%). The top five stocks with declines are: China Reform Health Management And Services Group Co.Ltd(000503) (- 26.22%), Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) (- 16.22%), Guangyuyuan Chinese Herbal Medicine Co.Ltd(600771) (- 14.28%), Yanan Bicon Pharmaceutical Listed Company(002411) (- 12.80%) and Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) (- 10.66%).
Valuation: the valuation showed an upward trend this week. As of Friday (January 14), PE (TTM) and Pb (LF) in the whole pharmaceutical and biological (SW) industry were 34.5 times and 4.22 times respectively.
Risk warning: medical policy risk; Lower prices than expected; Systemic risk.
