The growth rate of social zero slowed down year-on-year, and the double 11 siphon effect was obvious. In 2021m12, the total amount of social zero was 4.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.7%; After deducting the price factor, the actual decrease is 0.5%; In 2021, the total amount of social zeros was + 12.5% (2021m1-m11 was + 13.7%). The retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles in 2021m12 was 3.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.0%. By channel, the online retail sales of physical goods in 2021m12 was 1.00 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.9% (2021m11 was + 7.4%); In 2021, the cumulative amount was 10.80 trillion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 12.0% (2021m1-m11 was + 13.2%). Online retail sales of physical goods in 2021m12 accounted for 24.2% of the total social retail sales, with a month on month ratio of -7.66pp, a year-on-year increase of + 0.04pp. By category, the top three categories of 2021m12 growth are: daily necessities (year-on-year + 18.8%, compound growth rate of 2019-2021 10.9%), petroleum and products (year-on-year + 16.6%, compound growth rate of 2019-2021 1 1 1.8%), beverages (year-on-year + 12.6%, compound growth rate of 2019-2021 17.2%).
The growth rate of daily necessities was bright, and the cultural and office supplies increased steadily. Short term pressure on furniture: 2021m12 year-on-year – 3.1% (2021m11 + 6.1%), and the compound growth rate from 2019m12 to 2021m12 is 3.2%. In terms of real estate: affected by the fact that the social finance data of 2021m12 did not meet the market expectations, the completed and sales area of 2021m12 was slightly lower than the market expectations. The completed area of 2021m12 houses was + 1.9% year-on-year and + 11.2% year-on-year in 2021; The sales area of commercial housing in 2021m12 was – 15.6% year-on-year (2021m11 was – 14.0%), and the decline expanded month on month, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 1.9% in 2021. Cultural office supplies maintained steady growth: 2021m12 was + 7.4% (2021m11 was + 18.1%); The compound growth rate from 2019 to 2021 is 12.1% (2021m11 is + 14.6%). The growth rate of daily necessities is beautiful: the year-on-year growth rate of daily necessities in 2021m12 is + 18.8% (year-on-year growth rate in 2021m11 is + 8.6%), and the compound growth rate in the two years from 2019m12 to 2021m12 is + 10.9%, leading all categories of the society. Affected by the epidemic, the growth rate of gold, silver and jewelry fell: 2021m12 was – 0.2% (2021m11 was + 5.7%); The compound growth rate from 2019 to 2021 is 11.2% (2021m11 is + 11.9%).
The marginal rationalization trend of real estate credit remained unchanged, and the valuation repair of furniture sector was just at the right time. In the short term, since December 2021, the lending cycle of second-hand housing has gradually shortened and returned to normal. Banks in some regions such as Guangzhou, Nanjing and Yangzhou have begun to reduce mortgage interest rates, and the margin of real estate policy has been relaxed; On January 17, 2022, the central bank announced to reduce MLF and reverse repo interest rates to ease the pessimistic expectations of the real estate market. The external environment of the furniture industry has improved, and the orders of 2021q4 household enterprises have exceeded market expectations, highlighting the valuation advantages. In the long run, the policy of furniture going to the countryside drives the furniture penetration and consumption upgrading in the rural furniture market, and the demand growth potential of the furniture industry is large. In combination with the proportion of bulk business income, accounts receivable risk and valuation level, it is recommended to recommend [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] and [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ], and it is recommended to pay attention to [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ] and [ Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ]. In terms of software, it is the first to accelerate the promotion of independent brands and sink the leading [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] in channel construction; Meanwhile, [ Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) ], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and [Minhua holdings] are recommended.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, the real estate regulation exceeds expectations, and the prosperity of the industry decreases.
