Key investment points
Wholesale in December was + 10% month on month, in line with our expectations; Retail sales of traffic compulsory insurance increased by + 29% month on month, slightly lower than our expectation. 1) Passenger Federation caliber: in December, the output of narrow passenger cars reached 2.466 million (year-on-year + 7.2%, month on month + 10.6%), and the wholesale sales reached 2.366 million (year-on-year + 2.3%, month on month + 10.0%). In 2021, the annual cumulative output of passenger cars was 20.951 million, a year-on-year increase of + 7.7%; The cumulative wholesale sales volume was 21.098 million, a year-on-year increase of + 6.7%. 2) Caliber of traffic compulsory insurance: in December, there were 2189300 traffic compulsory insurance in the industry, with a month on month ratio of – 14.71% / + 28.99% respectively. Throughout the year, the sales volume of terminals with strong traffic insurance caliber was 20.0225 million, a year-on-year increase of + 6.87%. Export: in mid December, the export of Automobile Association caliber passenger vehicles was 187000, with a month on month ratio of + 61.2% / + 9.8%, of which 16000 new energy passenger vehicles were exported in December, with a month on month ratio of + 13.0% / – 53.8%. The month on month decline in new energy export was mainly due to Tesla China’s export of 245 vehicles in December, with a month on month ratio of – 98.84%. The annual export of passenger cars was 1.614 million, a year-on-year increase of + 110.5%. 3) Looking forward to January 2022: we expect that the overall production batch chain ratio of the passenger car industry is about – 20% / – 13% respectively, and the corresponding year-on-year ratio is + 6.5% / + 1.4% respectively; Export chain ratio is about – 20%, corresponding to + 65% year-on-year; The chain ratio of traffic compulsory insurance was – 10%, corresponding to – 13% year-on-year; The wholesale of new energy is expected to be about 400000, with a month on month ratio of – 20%, corresponding to a year-on-year ratio of + 135%.
New energy tracking: in December, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased slightly, and the new energy market as a whole continued to be hot. 1) According to the passenger Federation, the output of new energy passenger vehicles in December reached 486000 (year-on-year + 140.2%, month on month + 11.6%), and the wholesale sales reached 505000 (year-on-year + 138.9%, month on month + 17.8%), and the performance basically met our expectations. The new energy penetration rate of passenger car wholesale industry was 21.34%, with a month on month ratio of + 1.39pct. 2) According to the standard of traffic compulsory insurance, the retail sales of new energy achieved 483900 vehicles (year-on-year + 111.71%, month on month + 32.19%). In terms of car enterprises, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) & Tesla‘s new energy passenger car terminal retail increased significantly month on month in December. By region, the proportion of new energy sales in non restricted areas increased slightly. In terms of price bands, the proportion of middle-end consumption increased, and the proportion of low-end consumption + high-end consumption sales decreased; In December, except that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the price range of RMB 150000-200000 was -3.04pct month on month, the penetration rate of other price ranges increased month on month.
Tracking level of independent brand market share: in December, the overall independent brand market share of passenger cars was 47.31%, with a month on month ratio of + 0.4pct. In terms of vehicle types, the market share of independent brands of cars / SUVs is 37.1% / 55.1%, respectively + 1.3pct / – 0.7pct month on month; By fuel type, the market share of self owned brands in Bev / PHEV market was 74.45% / 79.61%, with a month on month increase of -7.04pct / + 0.57pct respectively.
Data level of key model inquiry: 1) in terms of new energy vehicles, SAIC Volkswagen id.4x, Byd Company Limited(002594) Qin new energy, song plus and Xiaopeng P5 new energy performed better month on month; Hongguang mini and Euler black cat had the highest absolute value of orders in December. 2) In terms of fuel vehicles, Haval H6 inquiry volume was + 34.18% month on month, with good performance; Cs75plus and Harvard H6 have the highest absolute value of inquiry quantity.
Investment suggestion: still optimistic about investment opportunities in the automobile sector. Triple cycle resonance in 2022, the golden age of autonomy: 1) chip mitigation brings the demand for replenishment in the passenger car industry. It is expected to enter the cycle of continuous year-on-year improvement of production and sales data in 2022. 2) Intelligent + electric + hybrid, a new round of new cars of independent brands are listed one after another, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, driving the market share of independent brands to achieve higher quality. 3) All independent brands actively promote overseas strategies, and exports will continue to enter the high growth channel. The whole vehicle segment recommends [ Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + Byd Company Limited(002594) + ideal car + Xiaopeng Car + Geely car + Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) + Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) + Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ], and pays attention to [Weilai Car + Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) + Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) ]. Parts section recommends [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) + Foryou Corporation(002906) + Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) + Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) + Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) + China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) + Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) + Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ], and pays attention to [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk tip: the impact of chip shortage exceeds expectations; The price war of passenger cars exceeded expectations.
