Event comments
On January 17, the National Bureau of statistics released the social zero data for December and the whole year of 2021: in 2021, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 44082.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, and the average growth rate in the two years was 3.9%. In December 2021, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 4126.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%.
The online sales data is good, and the aquatic industry is booming. In 2021, the national online retail sales of physical goods reached 10804.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, accounting for 24.5% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods; Among the online retail sales of physical goods, food, clothing and consumer goods increased by 17.8%, 8.3% and 12.5% year-on-year respectively. Food consumer goods still showed a rapid growth trend. The Spring Festival is approaching, and the epidemic is spreading in many places. The government advocates the “local new year” policy to promote the online sales of food. Among them, the demand for prefabricated vegetables increased. Due to the rigid demand for the Spring Festival dinner, the flow of offline restaurants may be limited by the epidemic, and the prefabricated dishes have the characteristics of standardization, diversification and convenience. Under the expectation of repeated catering consumption scenes or transfer of the epidemic, the demand for prefabricated dishes has increased. Aquaculture enterprises represented by Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) are expected to take the lead in occupying the market share of prefabricated vegetables because of their advantages in procurement, production and quality control.
The pig industry grew steadily and the industry concentration increased. In 2021, the output of pigs, cattle, sheep and poultry meat was 88.87 million tons, an increase of 16.3% over the previous year; Among them, the output of pork was 52.96 million tons, an increase of 28.8%. At the end of 2021, the number of live pigs and fertile sows increased by 10.5% and 4.0% respectively over the end of the previous year. In 2021, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) pigs were sold for a total of 78.3861 million, accounting for 14.25% of the country’s total, with a year-on-year increase of 5.63 PCT. In the long run, the head pig enterprises will further optimize their business model, form an industrial chain integrating self breeding, breeding and slaughtering, and continuously expand the industrial scale. In addition, on the premise of the continuous decline of pig prices and the long-term impact of non epidemic conditions, small-scale pig enterprises or small and medium-sized retail investors accelerated their exit due to their weak risk-taking ability or the inability to meet the prevention and control requirements due to the tightening of epidemic prevention policies, and the industry barriers increased, so as to further improve the industry concentration.
Grain production continued to increase, and the seed industry ushered in a high boom. The total retail sales of grain, oil and food in December was 166.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 10.8% from January to December. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the growth rate of grain, oil and food increased steadily, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.8% in November, ranking the fourth in all categories of commodity retail, mainly due to the domestic demand of grain, oil and food consumption driven by holidays such as the Spring Festival. Since the first half of 2021, international grain prices have been high, China’s grain inventories of corn, soybeans and other categories have been low, and the contradiction of food security has become prominent. The government attaches great importance to food security and clearly requires the northeast, Huang Huai Hai and other regions to increase the area of corn by more than 10 million mu; Heilongjiang province clearly proposed to expand the corn planting area, with the goal of more than 90 million mu. A new round of planting structure adjustment cycle has kicked off, driving the high demand of the seed industry and ushering in a high boom.
Investment advice
At present, there is still a mismatch between supply and demand in the market, and the inflection point of the pig cycle has not yet arrived. It is suggested to pay attention to self breeding and autotrophic leaders with cost advantages and second-line pig enterprises with sufficient reserves of sows. Policy dividends continue to be released to ensure China’s food security. The pattern of grain supply and demand has changed, the commercialization of GM has entered the fast lane, and the high prosperity of the seed industry continues. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises with strong R & D strength and rich GM reserves.
Risk tips
Tip 1: macroeconomic fluctuations;
Tip 2: non plague situation;
Tip 3: extreme weather effects, etc.
