Key investment points:
The rise and fall of the automobile industry index from December to January lagged behind the overall level, ranking 20th in the Shenwan industry. From December to January (2021.12.17-2022.1.16), the all a index rose or fell by – 4.75%. The median rise and fall of shenwanyi industry was – 3.17%, and the rise and fall of automobile industry (shenwanyi) was – 5.58%, 1.13pct behind the market, ranking 20th in the rise and fall of the sector.
The PE and Pb valuations of the industry fell simultaneously, with PE valuations in the top 7% and Pb valuations in the top 22% of the historical quantile. As of January 16, 2022, the latest PE valuation of Shenwan automobile industry is 30.7 times, which is in the top 7% of the historical range; Pb is valued at 2.5x, which is in the top 22% of the historical range.
The output of automobiles turned positive year-on-year, and the production and sales volume continued to increase month on month. In December, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.907 million and 2.786 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 12.5% and 10.5% respectively, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. From January to December, the production and sales of automobiles were 26.082 million and 26.275 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and 3.8% respectively.
The prosperity of new energy vehicles is high, and the production and sales volume refresh the historical record again. In December, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 518000 and 531000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 13.3% and 18.0% respectively. The installed capacity of power battery in December was 26.2gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 102.4% and a month on month increase of 25.9%. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) and zhongchuangxin are among the top three in terms of installed capacity.
Investment strategy: from the perspective of allocation, there was a large correction in the automobile sector this month. However, from the perspective of fundamentals, driven by the high prospect of new energy vehicles, the automobile sector has good performance support. Each sector reduction is an opportunity, so it is worth allocation. Focus on Tesla industry chain, new energy vehicle industry chain and intelligent vehicle industry chain. In the short term, the shortage of chips has little impact on automobile production capacity, and the performance of subsequent automobile companies is expected to recover. Therefore, the industry rating is maintained to “leading the market”. From January to February 2022, it is suggested to focus on individual stocks: Byd Company Limited(002594) (002594), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (601633), Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (603596), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689), Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) (600660), Foryou Corporation(002906) (002906), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (000887).
Risk tip: the automobile production and sales are lower than expected, and the prosperity of new energy vehicles is lower than expected.
