The Investment Event passenger car Federation released the production and sales data of passenger cars in December 2021: the retail sales volume of that month was 2.015 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 7.9% and a month on month increase of + 15.9%; The wholesale sales volume was 2.366 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.3% and a month on month increase of + 10.0%; The output was 2.466 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.2% and a month on month increase of + 10.6%
Our analysis and judgment
1) chip supply continued to improve, promoting the rise of production and sales in December. In December 2021, the retail sales volume of passenger cars reached 2.015 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 7.9% and a month on month increase of + 15.9%, which was significantly improved compared with the month on month increase of 10% in December in recent years, mainly due to the continuous improvement of chip supply, which promoted the rise of production and sales in December. From January to December, the total retail sales reached 2014.6 million, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, and the growth rate decreased by 1.7 percentage points compared with that from January to November, mainly due to the impact of the high base in December 2020. The inventory level at the dealer level has been improved, the structure has been continuously optimized, the terminal preference has been strengthened, the sales enthusiasm has been rapidly improved, and the terminal retail has been strengthened. In terms of structure, (1) in December, the retail sales of luxury cars was 250000, a year-on-year increase of – 3%, an increase of 22% over the same period in 2019 and an increase of 18% month on month; (2) The retail sales of independent brands reached 930000 units, a year-on-year increase of + 4%, a year-on-year increase of + 25% and a month on month increase of + 12% compared with the same period in 2019. The leading enterprises of independent brands performed very well and achieved significant growth in the new energy market. (3) The retail sales of joint venture brands were 930000, with a year-on-year increase of – 19%, compared with – 5% in the same period in 2019 and a month on month increase of + 19%, of which the Japanese share was 22.2%, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.0pct, and the American share was 9%, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.6pct. The supply of German brands is gradually improving.
2) the sales volume of new energy vehicles maintained a strong growth, with a retail penetration rate of 22.6% in December. In December, the retail sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 475000, with a year-on-year increase of + 128.8% and a month on month increase of + 25.4%; The wholesale sales volume was 505000, with a year-on-year increase of + 138.9% and a month on month increase of + 17.8%. From January to December, the wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles was 3.312 million, a year-on-year increase of 181.0%; Retail sales were 2.989 million, a year-on-year increase of 169.1%. The retail penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) in mid December was 22.6%, with a month on month ratio of + 1.8pct. The penetration rate from January to December was 14.8%, significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020. The new energy passenger vehicle market is diversified, with relatively strong performance of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , outstanding highlights of traditional vehicle enterprises, and strong performance of Byd Company Limited(002594) pure electric and plug-in hybrid two wheel drive. There are 14 enterprises with wholesale sales exceeding 10000 vehicles, of which Byd Company Limited(002594) (93000 vehicles), Tesla China (71000 vehicles) and SAIC GM Wuling (60000 vehicles) are the most prominent. In terms of models, the wholesale sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 423000, a year-on-year increase of + 137.9%; The wholesale sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 82000, a year-on-year increase of + 143.9%. In terms of structure, the wholesale penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles is 35.2%, that of luxury vehicles is 27.2%, and that of mainstream joint ventures is only 3.7%. In December, the sales volume of high-end electric vehicles increased strongly, with a strong trend in the middle and low end. Among them, the A00 wholesale sales volume is 139000, accounting for 33% of the pure electric; A0 grade wholesale sales volume is 60000, accounting for 14% of pure electric; Class A shares 25%, rising from the bottom; The share of class B was 27%, which remained stable.
Investment suggestion: the prosperity of the head independent brand continues to rise. We suggest to continue to pay attention to Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625. SZ), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (601633. SH / 2333. HK); The parts industry suggests paying attention to the comprehensive leader Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) (600741. SH), the scarce subject of lighting controller Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (603786. SH), and the intelligent driving active and passive safety supplier Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) (600699. SH).
Risk tips: 1. The risk of car sales not reaching the expectation; 2. Risk of covid-19 epidemic affecting automobile production and marketing
