Key investment points:
Lithium battery: continue to be optimistic about the certainty of diaphragm faucet Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812)
The diaphragm link continued to be tight, and the value of leading products increased due to structural improvement. The wet diaphragm process is complex and has high requirements for production equipment. At present, high-quality production equipment mainly comes from overseas manufacturers. The equipment end has become the main bottleneck for the expansion of wet diaphragm production, and the new diaphragm production capacity is mainly concentrated in the head enterprises. At present, the downstream demand is strong, and the capacity of diaphragm, especially high-quality wet diaphragm, is scarce. Due to the strong willingness of downstream supply guarantee and the integrated process of Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) online coating, the supply proportion of coating film rises rapidly. In addition, due to the increasing willingness of overseas battery enterprises to purchase, the overseas market share is expected to continue to increase. The increase of overseas share and coating proportion increases the proportion of coating film with higher profitability in the product structure, which is expected to help the product value increase.
Photovoltaic: the prices of silicon materials and silicon wafers have stabilized in stages, and the strong demand for the whole year is beginning to appear
According to the quotation of silicon branch, the price of silicon materials stabilized and rebounded in early January. The prices of different silicon materials rebounded by about 1.2 ~ 1.5%, and the price rebounded to about 230000 yuan / ton. Meanwhile, on January 16, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) official website released price adjustment information, and the prices of silicon wafers of different grades increased by 2.4 ~ 5.1%. The price of the industrial chain has stabilized. At present, some new silicon material production capacity is still gradually released, and the stabilization and recovery of silicon material and silicon wafer prices can reflect better downstream demand support. According to the prediction of the photovoltaic Association, the installed capacity may increase to more than 75gw in 2022 driven by China's huge reserves of photovoltaic power generation projects. In 2022, the balanced upward trend of the photovoltaic industry chain is clear, and the prosperity of the industry chain is gradually improved.
Wind power: new land wind and sea wind projects continue to be released, and sea wind bidding is expected to enter a new cycle. Since 2022, China has started bidding for several wind power projects, including land wind Liaoning 700MW and Huaneng 510mw. Sea wind Jiangsu and Shanghai have successively released competitive configurations. The continuous release of new land wind and sea wind projects indicates that the annual market bidding is expected to reach a new high. With the upgrading of large-scale wind power technology and the decline of phased cost end in 2021, the unit cost of wind turbine has decreased significantly. Combined with the intensification of short-term market competition, the annual average bidding price has decreased from 3300 yuan to about 2200 yuan. On the basis of the sharp decline in prices, a large number of stock parity projects have been activated, which has driven the large-scale release of market bidding. It is worth looking forward to the annual market bidding.
Investment suggestions: with the progress of battery technology, the improvement of product power and the continuous improvement of infrastructure, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will accelerate and drive the release of power battery demand. The large-scale development of power batteries will further reduce the cost of the industry and form a positive feedback for the development of new energy vehicles. In the context of the "double carbon" goal, the clean energy development represented by photovoltaic and wind power will continue to enjoy the attribute premium of renewable energy and green energy, add the policy support of the whole county to promote distributed and large wind and solar bases and the continuous cost reduction of wind and solar power generation, and the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) installed space will continue to be opened during the 14th Five Year Plan period. In the long run, we continue to meet the development prospects of new energy vehicles and clean energy represented by photovoltaic and wind power, which are in line with the "double carbon" trend. Therefore, we give the "recommended" rating of the industry. In terms of specific targets, it is recommended to focus on: (1) lithium battery link: the market demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage is determined, the limitation of raw materials leads to the concentration of battery enterprises [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ] and [ Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) ] and salt lake lithium extraction solution enterprises [ Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi'An(300487) ], and the diaphragm leading enterprise with upward product value under the background of continuous tight diaphragm link [ Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ]; (2) Photovoltaic link: benefiting from the leading companies [ Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ] and [ Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ] of silicon wafer and silicon materials with a good outlook in the photovoltaic industry chain, the midstream auxiliary material links [ Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ] and [ Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) ] driven by the stimulation of downstream photovoltaic installation demand; (3) Wind power sector: wind turbine head enterprises [ Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) ] and [ Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) ] benefiting from the high volume of industrial bidding.
Risk tip Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) capacity expansion is less than expected; Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) cost control is less than expected; Focus on the company's performance less than expected; The installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power is less than expected; The demand for new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Major policy changes, etc.
