Core view:
Market review: last week, the mechanical equipment index rose 6.31%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 14.27%, and the gem index fell 1.36%. Mechanical equipment ranked 12th in all 28 industries. After excluding negative values, the valuation level of the machinery industry is 25.8 (overall method).
Weekly concern: PMI of manufacturing industry rebounded slightly in December, and the decline of excavator sales narrowed
The manufacturing PMI index in December was 50.3, up 0.2 percentage points from November, and was above the boom and bust line for two consecutive months after November.
The annual output of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and machine tool industry increased rapidly in 2021, and the marginal growth rate still slowed down in December. The output of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) in December was 35175 units, with a year-on-year increase of 15.1%; the output of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) from January to December was 363000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 44.9%; In December, the output of metal cutting machine tools was 600000, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. From January to December, the output of normal machine tools reached 600000, with a year-on-year increase of 29.2%. In the long run, China's Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry is still in the growth stage. It is expected that the average annual growth rate will still exceed 20% during the 14th Five Year Plan period. It is recommended to focus on the import substitution of ontology and core parts; China's machine tool industry is large, weak and scattered. In the future, under the strong manufacturing power and chain reinforcement chain, the NC rate is expected to increase, the concentration is expected to increase, and the medium and high-end localization rate is expected to increase. In the short term, affected by the small cycle of manufacturing investment, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and general automation related industries such as machine tools have weakened since the third quarter of 2021. According to the historical law, manufacturing investment has a small cycle of 3-4 years, with an upward growth margin of 1-2 years and a downward growth margin of 1-2 years.
The decline in excavator sales narrowed in December. China Construction Machinery Industry Association released the excavator sales data in December 2021. In December 2021, the 25 main engine manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics sold 24038 excavators, a year-on-year decrease of 23.76%; Among them, 15423 units were sold in the Chinese market, a year-on-year decrease of 43.54%; The export sales volume was 8615 units, a year-on-year increase of 104.58%. From January to December 2021, the cumulative sales volume of excavators was 342700, with a year-on-year increase of 4.63%; China's sales reached 274300 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.32%; In terms of tonnage structure, in December, the sales volume of large excavation 2105 units, medium excavation 3820 units and small excavation 9498 units decreased by 40.15%, 48.73% and 41.91% respectively year-on-year, and increased by 11.91%, 14.82% and 7.86% respectively month on month; From January to December, the total sales volume of large-scale excavation was 33500 units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.77%; The cumulative sales volume of zhongdig was 77800 units, a year-on-year increase of 0.72%; The cumulative sales volume of small excavation was 162900 units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.99%.
Investment suggestions: continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in line with the general trend of the times, such as new energy, hard technology, specialization and innovation, including lithium battery equipment, photovoltaic equipment, energy conservation and emission reduction equipment, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) automation, etc. In terms of beneficial targets, lithium equipment field Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) , Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) , Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) , etc; Photovoltaic equipment field Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) , Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) , etc; Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) automation Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) , Bozhon Precision Industry Technology Co.Ltd(688097) , Shenzhen Colibri Technologies Co.Ltd(002957) etc; Specialized in new fields Shareate Tools Ltd(688257) etc.
Risk tip: covid-19 pneumonia epidemic situation is repeated; The degree of policy promotion is less than expected; Manufacturing investment fell.
