Main points
In 21 years, the sales amount of commercial housing reached 18.19 trillion. In the first half of the year, the overall sales improved. In the second half of the year, affected by factors such as tightening liquidity and credit risk events of individual developers, the market wait-and-see mood improved. In the second half of the year, the sales market turned cold, and the sales end was lower than in previous years. However, in terms of annual sales, in 2021, the sales area of commercial housing reached 1.794 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, of which the sales area of commercial housing was 1.565 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. The sales amount of commercial housing was 18.19 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, of which the sales of commercial housing was 16.27 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. In December, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 174 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 16.45%, and the sales amount of commercial housing nationwide was 1.71 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.64%.
The centralized land supply in 22 cities was successfully completed, and the national land purchase area decreased slightly in 2021. 22 city centralized land supply not only affects the rhythm of land acquisition by developers, but also urges developers to reasonably adjust capital preparation. Nationwide, in 2021, real estate development enterprises purchased 216 million square meters of land, a year-on-year decrease of 15.5%; The land transaction price was 1.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. In December 2021, the national land purchase area was 33.0252 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 33.22%.
The new construction is slightly weak, and the completion is still supported. In 2021, the new construction area of commercial housing in China was 1.464 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.90%, an increase of 2.5pct compared with that from January to November; In December alone, the new construction area of commercial housing in China was 114 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 33.11%, which was larger than that from January to November. In 2021, the construction area of commercial housing in China was 6.903 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.30%; In December, the construction area of commercial housing in China was 108 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 38.94%, and the decline continued to expand.
The funds in place for real estate development investment increased slightly compared with the same period. In 2021, the completed investment in real estate development was 14.76 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 4.40%. The capital in place of real estate development enterprises was 20.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, of which China's loans were 2.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%; The utilized foreign capital was 10.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.1%; Self raised funds amounted to 654 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2%; Deposits and advance receipts reached 7.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.1%; Personal mortgage loans reached 3.24 trillion, an increase of 8.0%.
Investment advice
The credit environment still needs to be improved, the Matthew effect of capital is prominent, and enterprises with low financing cost and land acquisition advantage may benefit. The relevant targets: (1) leading real estate enterprises with low financing cost and can continuously obtain land in first and second tier cities, such as green city China (3900. HK), Longhu group (0960. HK), etc; (2) Real estate enterprises that are less affected by the "two concentration" land policy and take land in diversified ways, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) (601155. SH), Baolong real estate (1238. HK), etc.
Risk tips
Real estate policy regulation exceeded expectations; Real estate sales fell short of expectations.
