Events
On January 17, the National Bureau of statistics released the social zero data for 2021.
Key investment points
In 2021, social zero grew by 12.5% year-on-year, and the consumer market continued to operate at a low level in December: in 2021, China's total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 44.08 trillion yuan / + 12.5%, an increase of 7.1% over 2019, and the average growth rate in the two years was 3.9%. In December 2021, China achieved a total of 4.13 trillion yuan / + 1.7%, which was lower than the market expectation (according to wind, the average year-on-year growth forecast of social zero in December 2021 was 3.9%), and the average growth rate in two years was 3.1%. The growth rate slowed down by 1.3pct compared with the previous month. In December, China's consumer market continued to operate at a low level.
From the perspective of different channels, from 2019 to 2021, the online channels grew at a low double-digit compound rate, and the offline channels recovered in twists and turns:
Online, in 2021, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 10.8 trillion yuan / + 12.0%, with an average growth rate of about 13.4% in the two years; Online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 24.5% of social zero, a slight decline of 0.4pct compared with 2020, and the trend of residents' consumption habits transferring to online remained unchanged. In December, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 99.859 million yuan / + 1.9%, down 5.5 PCT month on month, with an average growth rate of 4.1% in two years and down 5.6 PCT month on month. In December, the growth of online channels was weak due to the diversion of double 11 promotion and the weakness of terminal demand. According to data, the sales scale of tmall, a traditional e-commerce platform, decreased by 6.6% year-on-year in December, including women's clothing / women's boutique category decreased by 22.7%, sports / outdoor category decreased by 0.7%, jewelry / jewelry category decreased by 10.9%, and beauty care / body care / essential oil category increased by 1.5%.
Offline, in 2021, the offline retail sales of physical goods (retail sales agency zero - online retail sales of physical goods) were about 28.6 trillion yuan / + 12.2%, with an average growth rate of about 1.1% in two years. In December, the offline retail sales of physical goods were about 2.6 trillion yuan / + 2.4%, down 1.0 PCT month on month, with an average growth rate of 3.4% in two years and an increase of 1.5 PCT month on month. In the short term, the epidemic situation in China may continue to disturb offline consumption. According to Huike cloud, during the "double day" period (December 24, 21-january 3, 22), the average daily passenger flow of shopping centers in China decreased by 14.3% year-on-year compared with that of last year, and the Northwest region decreased by 54.3% year-on-year due to the epidemic situation in Xi'an.
By category, in 2021, the performance of mandatory categories is stable, and the performance of optional cosmetics is good:
In terms of mandatory consumption, grain, oil and food increased by 10.8% year-on-year in 2021, with an average growth rate of 10.3% in two years, including a year-on-year increase of 11.3% in December; In 2021, daily necessities increased by 14.4% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 10.9% in two years, including a year-on-year increase of 18.8% in December. The required categories continued to grow steadily in 2021, and the growth rate increased month on month in December.
In terms of optional consumption, in December, Limited cosmetics increased by 2.5% year-on-year, the growth rate decreased by 5.7pct month on month, and the average growth rate in the two years was 5.7%; The growth rate of gold, silver and jewelry in the upper limit turned negative, with a year-on-year decline of 0.2%, and the average growth rate in the two years was 5.5%; The upper limit of textile and garment fell by 2.3% year-on-year, which is still relatively under pressure. The decline expanded by 1.8pct in December, with an average growth rate of 0.7% in two years. In 2021, retail sales of commodities above designated size increased by 12.8% year-on-year and 10.9% year-on-year compared with the same period in 2019. Cosmetics, textiles and clothing, gold, silver and jewelry increased by 14.0%, 12.7% and 29.8% year-on-year respectively, and 34.5%, 2.4% and 16.7% year-on-year compared with the same period in 2019. From the two-year compound growth rate, cosmetics ranked first among the 15 consumer categories above the limit, including gold, silver and jewelry Textile and clothing ranked 7th and 11th respectively.
Investment suggestion: in terms of textile manufacturing, according to the announcement of Shenzhou International Company, from 8 p.m. on January 15, Beilun District of Ningbo lifted the temporary closure management measures for the sealed and controlled areas, and the production of the company's garment and fabric production base began to resume the next day. The Beilun epidemic affected the company's garment production loss, accounting for about 2% of the group's normal annual output; According to WeChat official account, the company encourages employees to celebrate the Spring Festival in the local area, and cash rewards for employees who are required to take part in the Spring Festival holiday and resume work after the festival. In the short term, it is expected that employees will make up for the loss of garment production in the local new year. In the medium and long term, the company's vertically integrated production capacity is highly scarce, so it will continue to be recommended; In terms of brand, on January 16, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on doing a good job in promoting consumption in the near future, emphasizing that under the accurate and effective epidemic prevention and control, we should seize the opportunity of the peak consumption season of the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival, adapt to the changes of residents' consumption habits and the needs of improving quality and upgrading, and explore consumption hotspots and growth points. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the high prosperity sportswear track catalyzed by the recent winter Olympics, including Anta sports and Li Ning, the local sportswear leaders; As well as bosden, Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) .
Risk tips: repeated outbreaks in China; Price fluctuation of raw materials; The epidemic situation in Southeast Asia may affect the production capacity release of textile manufacturing industry; The exchange rate fluctuated sharply.
