Industry perspective
I. social retail: the growth rate is lower than expected, and the required performance is better than the optional performance
The total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 1.7% year-on-year in December (the previous value was 3.87%), and it is expected to increase by 3.9% year-on-year. In 2021, the year-on-year growth was 12.46%, with an average growth of 3.48% in the two years. Consumption intention may continue to be restrained, mainly due to the continuous decline in the growth rate of the cumulative value of per capita disposable income and the enhancement of savings intention. Residents’ future employment expectation is slightly lower than Q3, and the price expectation index is higher than Q3. The cumulative disposable income per capita increased by 9.1% year-on-year in the four quarters of 2021 (9.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2021).
By industry, the growth rate of each industry has dropped, and the required prosperity is better than the optional. In December, the growth rate of mandatory consumption in the current month was 11% ~ 18%, and the growth rate of optional consumption was – 2% ~ 2.5%. The growth rate of online cumulative retail sales in the current month is also required rather than optional. The growth rate is “eat (17.8%) > use (12.5%) > wear (8.3%)
From the perspective of different channels, due to the great impact of promoting siphonage, the retail sales of online goods and services increased by – 0.75% year-on-year in December (the previous value was 6.28%). In 2021, the year-on-year growth was 11.29%, and the two-year average growth was 11.83%. The growth rate of express delivery dropped significantly, with a year-on-year revenue of – 0.9% (previous value of 12.0%) and a year-on-year express business volume of 10.7% (previous value of 16.5%).
In terms of attributes, catering performance is inferior to commodities. Under the comprehensive effect of repeated epidemics in some regions, catering performance continued to be weak. The year-on-year growth rate of catering retail was – 2.2% (the former value was – 2.75%), and the year-on-year growth rate of commodity retail was 2.3% (the former value was 4.8%)
II. Online consumption: the siphon effect of Q4 is strengthened, and the demand for “home” scenario is high
Year: the weakening of the demand side throughout the year led to a decline in growth. The online penetration rate is basically the same as that in 2020, and online goods and services account for about 30% of social zero. Throughout 2021, the growth rate of e-commerce platform Gmv is lower than that in 2020. Tmall’s Gmv growth rate in December was – 9.8%, the cumulative Gmv growth rate in Q4 was – 2%, and the annual Gmv growth rate in 2021 was 9%. JD’s Gmv grew by 20.2% in December, 18% in Q4, and 25% in 2021. Pinduoduo’s Gmv increased by 22% in December, and Q4’s cumulative Gmv increased by 39%. In 2021, the annual growth rate of Gmv was 54%.
Quarter: Q4 in terms of categories, the growth rate of categories around the “home” Scene (furniture, home decoration, household daily use and household appliances) is better, and the consumption of “Yueji” (clothing, cosmetics and jewelry) is weaker. The categories with high compound growth rate in the past two years are mainly driven by the improvement of online penetration (furniture and home decoration, medicine and health, jewelry and watches). In addition, the siphon promoting effect of Q4 is intensified, which has an increased impact on cosmetics, textiles and clothing, gold and jewelry.
Hot spot resumption: the ban on top stream anchor account has limited drag on the growth of cosmetics so far. Looking at the growth rate of categories, tmall cosmetics grew by – 8% (the previous value was – 5%) in December, and the growth rate fell slightly month on month. However, the overall growth rate of Q4 was 13%, showing a stable performance. The decline in growth rate in December was mainly due to ① the increased siphon effect on cosmetics, and the demand has been largely released during the double 11; ② The duty-free channel diverted some consumer demand. In December, the Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) promotion of cosmetics in the duty-free channel was compact.
Monthly: furniture, home decoration and outdoor sports are booming in December. The growth rate of cosmetics, maternal and infant care fell.
Risk tips
The terminal demand is weak, and the consumption recovery is less than expected; Macroeconomic depression; Intensified industry competition, etc
